Biology Reference
In-Depth Information
Chapter 6
Temporal Management of Invasive Species
Catherine S. Jarnevich and Thomas J. Stohlgren
Abstract
Successful management of invasive species requires using spatial mod-
els of current distributions and forecasts of spread with explicit consideration of the
effects of time on the invasion. Forecasts must also include components contribut-
ing to the spread rate such as invasion stage and Allee effects. There are several
different analysis techniques available for spatial models and forecasting, and
the appropriate technique will depend on the particular research or management
question. Many of the best forecasting examples with time as a parameter exist
for insect species, but the same techniques are useful in forecasting the spread of
plant species. Often, data availability is a limiting factor in doing this, so we need
to change the data being collected. Inclusion of this temporal information in priori-
tization of resources for control/eradication efforts will help them be effective and
efficient.
Keywords
Forecasting
Invasions
Spread rates
6.1 Introduction
Invasion ecology must progress from a reactive science to a proactive science (Lodge
et al. 2006). That's because the likelihood of eradicating or containing an infestation
decreases as the size of the infestation increases (Rejmanek and Pitcairn 2002)
An important component of prevention and control of invasive species is fore-
casting where invasions are most likely to initially occur, and where they are likely
to spread once local populations are established in a country, region, or locally.
Many “predictions” to this point have involved “hinde-casting” past invasions or
spatially extrapolating patterns of nonnative species, based on environmental
C.S. Jarnevich (
) and T.J. Stohlgren
Fort Collins Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA
jarnevichc@usgs.gov
