GLOBAL WARMING: COWS OR CARS? - MEAT: A Benign Extravagance - page 198

are derived from a paper co-authored by himself. 20 It is certainly true that the steps made
to eradicate foot and mouth have increased the amount of Brazilian beef going for export,
and hence the profitability of the industry. However more recent papers note that the surge
in Amazon deforestation levels, peaking in 2004, was exacerbated by an increase in soya
production, one study concluding that 'the growing importance of larger and faster conver-
sion of forest to cropland [mainly soya] defines a new paradigm of forest loss in Amazonia
and refutes the claim that agricultural intensification does not lead to new deforestation'. 21
Early in 2008, observers began to express concern at a sudden spurt in forest defor-
estation, which threatened to undo the progress made over the previous three years, and
was ostensibly due to beef ranching, since the moratorium on soya planting remained in
place. This surge, which fortunately only lasted a few months, was in response to the
rise in commodity prices, and most observers concluded that pressure for soya in previ-
ously cleared areas was pushing ranchers further into the forest. The conservation group
Mongabay wrote:
Typically rainforest lands are cleared for low-intensity cattle ranching then sold
to soy producers some two to three years later. With land prices appreciating and soy
cultivation expanding in previously cleared areas and the neighbouring cerrado grass-
land ecosystem, ranching is increasingly displaced to frontier areas, spurring deforest-
ation … 'The powerful Brazilian soy lobby has been a driving force behind initiatives
to expand Amazonian highway networks, which greatly increase access to forests for
ranchers, farmers, loggers and land speculators', said Dr William F Laurance, a re-
searcher at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute. 22
Over the past ten years the fluctuations in the levels of deforestation have shown a much
closer correlation to movements of soya prices than to movements of beef prices. 23 The
increase in soya production prior to 2003 (as we have already seen) was largely livestock-
driven - to supply the EU with high protein animal feeds that it could no longer source
from slaughterhouse wastes because of the BSE fiasco. But the more recent spike in defor-
estation in 2007-2008 was driven by both oil and meal prices more than doubling, with oil
prices arguably rising more than meal in Brazil, whereas meat prices only rose by 10 to 20
per cent in 2007 and 2008. Moreover most commentators agreed that the rise in meal and
oil prices was at least in part caused by the demand for biofuels, especially from US corn. 24
Dr Laurance observes:
American taxpayers are spending $11 billion a year to subsidize corn producers
- and this is having some surprising global consequences. Amazon fires and forest
destruction have spiked over the last several months, especially in the main soy-pro-