Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
primary service sector of the European economy (EEA, 2001, p4). Thus, the EEA
reports that demand for transport fuels is growing faster than overall energy demand.
The average growth rate of total passenger kilometres in the period 1980 to 1998 was
2.8 per cent per year, slightly higher than that of gross domestic product (GDP).
Only a slight decoupling from economic growth is expected by 2010 (EEA, 2001,
p4). In the EU since 1990, while there has been a decoupling of emissions of acidi-
fying substances and ozone precursors by transport, emissions of greenhouse gases
continue to rise (EEA, 2001, pp6-7).
Despite these wider trends, it is both possible and necessary to envision practi-
cable and relatively environmentally sustainable transport networks - both surface
and air. These will involve lower carbon fuels and engine technologies, policy mea-
sures such as carbon trading, emissions charges/taxes and regulation, all designed to
achieve substantial absolute reductions in the primary environmental problem of
greenhouse gas emissions.
1
The Swedish Environmentally Sustainable Transport
research programme (Brokking et al, 1997) is an example of such an envisioning
approach. Similarly, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) forecasting project Environmentally Sustainable Transport takes a target-
led ('backcasting') approach to detailing policy measures for environmentally sus-
tainable transport.
Still, major reductions in transport greenhouse gases by countries or regions can
only be judged to be sustainable if the rest of the industrialized world follows suit,
and if emissions by the industrializing
world decrease after a necessary initial increase
(for detail on global carbon emissions contract-and-convergence scenarios, see www.
gci.org.uk). Discussion of aviation and sustainability should be cognizant of this wider
context.
2
So, where should aviation go from here? While arguably insufficient in terms of
environmental and, hence, community protection, commentators advocating the use
of policy instruments to curb the growth of at least the marginal (per aircraft) impacts
of aviation (eg Grayling and Bishop, 2001) are probably hitting the middle ground
of observer opinion. In addition, it has also been observed above that it is not the
policy context of aviation alone that needs reform, but that aviation is 'only' one
particularly visible driver of some forms of environmental deterioration. Whatever
one sees as priorities for research and action, and whatever one's understanding of
sustainability, there can be no doubt that this field will remain - live and conten-
tious - for many years to come.
N
OTES
1
For people exposed to undue aircraft noise, gaseous emissions may well be seen as a
secondary issue. Nevertheless, it will be acknowledged that climate change will affect all
citizens wherever they live, now and in the future.
2
For OECD environmentally sustainable transport (EST) documents, see www.oecd.org/
EN/about/0,,EN-about-518-nodirectorate-no-no-no-8,00.html.
