Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Aviation has some very special characteristics. It is the fastest growing consumer
of energy in transport, and transport is the fastest growing consumer of energy in all
sectors of the economy. Aviation pays no tax on fuel, receives large subsidies in the form
of state expenditures on infrastructure and grows at a rate that in the UK requires
another Heathrow airport every five years. Every airport has an expansion plan (more
runways and more terminals), every business has an eye on expansion through logis-
tics and the opportunities presented by globalization (air freight), and every poor
region of the world thinks that tourism (air passengers) will bring income and
wealth. This is a powerful cocktail of forces working towards higher and higher lev-
els of kilometres flown and tonnes of freight carried by air.
Demand for air transport
The number of passengers carried by global aviation in the year 2000 was 1.6 billion.
Contrary to the impression given by this very large number, only 5 per cent of the
world's population have ever flown. Thus, the growth potential of this industry -
assuming capacity problems at airports and in airspace can be overcome - is enor-
mous. Over the past 20 years, the number of passengers carried into and out of UK
airports has trebled and air transport movements and freight have doubled. This is
also a global phenomenon, with growth rates in the Asia and Pacific regions being
greater than in the UK. The industry itself estimates that global air travel will
increase threefold by 2020 on a 1999 base. Since this growth is stronger than aircraft
fuel-efficiency gains (currently about 1 per cent per annum), the aviation industry
cannot avoid significant increases in greenhouse gas emissions over the next 20 years.
On this simplest of measures of what is sustainable, the aviation industry is not cur-
rently sustainable.
Greenhouse gas emissions
The relationship of aviation to climate change is reported elsewhere in the topic.
While this will not be repeated here, it remains one of the most pressing reasons for
curbing aviation growth. Suffice it to say that, year on year, increases in energy con-
sumption and greenhouse gas emissions are not compatible with national and inter-
national strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. International discussions
aimed at reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of aviation continue within the Inter-
national Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO); but nothing has emerged that can
even begin to deliver aviation's contribution to reducing greenhouse gases in the UK
by the 12.5 per cent of the Kyoto agreement or by the 20 per cent 'domestic goal'.
The implication of this 'no-go' area in greenhouse reduction targets is that other sec-
tors of the economy must make greater proportionate reductions in order to create
the space for aviation to continue on its upward growth trajectory. This is once
again a departure from the principles of sustainable development; it is unfair and it
is inefficient from an economic perspective. There is no evidence that society, as a
whole, gains from the expansion of aviation under these privileged circumstances
(no greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets and no tax on fuels). If anything, the
evidence on externalities, environmental costs and human health shows that avia-
tion is a drag on economic performance.
