Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
climate change, except for some effects of contrails and cirrus clouds that are con-
centrated in northern latitudes where most air traffic takes place. According to the
third assessment report of the IPCC, the regional incidence of vulnerability to impacts
from climate change varies with regard to physical exposure to adverse effects and
adaptive capacity for dealing with such effects (IPCC, 2001). Vulnerability of most
less-developed regions is particularly high owing to the sensitivity of their economies
to climate change hazards and their limited resources available for adapting to such
hazards (McCarthy et al, 2001, p16).
Ironically, climate change to which tourism-related air travel contributes may
have severe repercussions on the attractiveness of many of today's popular tourism
destinations. As far as the regional effects of climate change can already be esti-
mated, coastal regions may substantially suffer or simply disappear (eg the Maldives)
owing to a potential sea-level rise. Increased sunshine and temperatures may turn
sunny regions unacceptably hot (eg Australia), warmer temperatures may allow some
tropical diseases to spread into areas that, so far, were unaffected (eg malaria), and reduced
snowfall may shorten the seasons for skiing. Winners of rising temperatures in the
tourism sector may be countries that so far were subject to relatively unfavourable
weather conditions for tourism purposes (eg the UK) (Agnew and Viner, 1999, p3).
The development of international tourism has brought about a specialization of
certain countries and regions in supplying tourism services based upon natural beauty,
climate, opportunities for certain sport activities, current manmade structures and
cultural heritage. The US is both a major contributor to GHG emissions from civil
aviation and the most important international tourist destination of the world with-
out being substantially economically dependent upon such tourism. Other coun-
tries, however, are in a rather different situation. For instance, the Republic of Maldives
is both heavily dependent upon civil aviation for its tourism industry and - like
some other so-called small island states - extremely vulnerable to a sea-level rise that
may result from climate change, owing to its low elevation (Agnew and Viner, 1999,
p17). In 1999, travel and tourism in the Maldives directly and indirectly accounted
for 85.7 per cent of GDP and were equivalent to 72.9 per cent of exports (WTTC,
2001, p2). Even though these figures are very high for the Republic of Maldives
when compared to other small island states, these economies are generally heavily
dependent upon tourism (Nurse and Sem, 2001, p862). Apart from small island states,
there are many other developing countries with significant contributions of tourism
to GDP. Even within the EU there are various countries that have specialized in
tourism and have become somewhat economically dependent upon it.
As results of a survey amongst international airlines suggest (Koehn and Pas-
towski, forthcoming), the structure of the aviation industry reveals certain patterns
that have implications for greenhouse gas emissions. The modernity of the aircraft
in use is highest for West European scheduled airlines, with some other regions of
the world significantly lagging behind. Aircraft used for non-scheduled and, in par-
ticular, for cargo operation generally are older than those used for scheduled ser-
vices. Non-scheduled services still allow for a superior level of operational efficiency
through very high load factors. Many aircraft exclusively used for cargo traffic have
been converted from passenger operation and, therefore, are rather old. The main
challenge associated with the international structure of the aviation industry, for
internationally coordinated policies, concerns the regional variance of the average age
