Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Chapter 8
The potential for modal substitution
Milan Janic
I
NTRODUCTION
This chapter assesses the most promising options for the possible substitution of air
transport services by surface transport services. The chapter consists of five sections.
Following an introduction, the second section briefly describes the main characteris-
tics of high-speed (HS) transit systems in Europe. The third section addresses the
potential relationships between existing HS systems, particularly high-speed rail
(HSR) and air passenger transport (APT). The fourth section analyses the potential
for substitution between particular HS systems and related effects, and the final sec-
tion draws some conclusions.
The aim of modal substitution is to provide conditions for further sustainable
development of transport systems in the regions in question. In Europe, a realistic
and emerging option is to partially substitute APT with HSR. During the past decade,
HSR has become an important player in the short- to medium-distance intercity
passenger transport market of Western Europe. Apart from the currently non-existent
magnetic levitation transport system (MAGLEV), both APT and HSR represent
alternatives that can operate exclusively or simultaneously in particular markets. When
operating exclusively in niche markets, they are related only at the ends of particular
routes or corridors. However, when operating simultaneously in the same markets,
APT and HSR are in dynamic interaction and can be either in competitive or com-
plementary relationship. Within the same mode, both competition and cooperation
may take place between particular HSR and APT operators or carriers.
At short to medium intercity distances (between 400-800km), APT and HSR
can compete effectively if there is a sufficient volume of transport demand where the
infrastructure for both alternatives exists. In the absence of these conditions, only
one alternative will be economically feasible. Generally, HSR has been considered a
'positive' substitute for APT rather than a complementary alternative - first, as
