Environmental Engineering Reference
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FIGURE 5.7 The projected changes in the probability of large (> 200 ha) wildfires in 2070-2090 compared
to the reference period 1961-1990 using the output from two of the AR4 climate models (GFDL and PCM)
that were forced with two of the emission scenarios (B1 and A2). Source: Westerling and Bryant (2008:
Figure 7).
models. This reflects the fundamental differences in the climate impacts on
fire regime in these regions due to differences in vegetation type.
The change in the probability of the wildfire area burned in the western
United States due to increased greenhouse gases can be estimated using the
methods outlined in Littell et al. (2009), modified to use temperature and
precipitation as the predictor variables. Shown in Figure 5.8 is the change
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