Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Jan-1900 Sep-1913 May-1927 Jan-1941 Oct-1954 Jun-1968 Feb-1982 Oct-1995
Jul-2009 Mar-2023
Figure 15.3
Monthly crude oil production in the United States since January 1920 to November 2010.
Energy Information Administration.
between now and 2040 (Laherrère, 1997; Campbell and Laherrère, 1998; GAO, 2007;
de Almeida and Silva, 2009; Sorrell et al., 2010) (Figure 15.4), and as oil becomes less avail-
able, the effect will be felt in the form of higher prices.
It is important to point out that current world oil production comes almost exclusively
from what is called conventional sources, which is oil recovered with standard technologies.
Once the production of these conventional sources starts to decline, there are other alterna-
tives of oil, nonconventional, that could be tapped into by using special technologies.
Nonconventional oil include oil shales, oil sands, extra-heavy oil, and ultra-deep deposits;
and they are much more expensive than conventional oil production and have a lower EROI.
Eventually when prices of conventional oil become too high, then these nonconventional
sources may become competitive in monetary terms; however, they will not be in terms of
EROI.
Regardless when it happens, global peak oil will produce critical transformation in the
current way of living. Peak oil will not affect only transportation and activities that involve
transportation but also others that use oil as raw material or as a source of energy.
Peak gas
Recently, many advocates started promoting the idea of using natural gas as transportation
fuel. In fact countries with abundant natural gas (e.g., Argentina) have been doing this for years.
In the United States, during the spike in transportation fuel costs in 2008, T. Boone Pickens
