Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
4.
Late Majority (34 percent)
: these are the ones who adopt the new technology because they
are afraid that will fall behind the rest. This group holds to conventional technologies as
long as they can.
5.
Late Adopters or Laggards (16 percent)
: they try to stick to old technologies as long as
they can.
Technology hype cycles
Often when a new technology arrives, the market overreacts in terms of the capability of the
new technology and creates inflated expectations. When the market finds that the expectations
were beyond the technology capabilities, a period of disappointment follows. This kind of
phenomenon is described by the “technology hype cycle” that was developed in 1995 for the
high-tech industry (Linden and Fenn, 2003).
The technology hype cycle has six phases and only covers the early stages of a technology life
cycle. The hype cycle starts with a technology trigger, which can be a breakthrough or simply
media speculation about the new technology. This leads to the on-the-rise phase, in which startup
companies are formed and laboratory prototypes are created. The trend keeps growing until new
products resulting from that technology are available. When these new products do not meet the
high expectations created, a peak of inflated expectations is reached followed by a decline in
confidence about the technology. This period is characterized by a retraction until a valley, the
trough of disillusionment, reverses the trend and gives way to the slope of enlightenment phase.
In this phase, expectations are more realistic and the period is characterized by a better under-
standing of the benefits and liabilities of the new technology. At this stage fewer companies
adopt the technology and produce second-generation products. The last phase of the hype cycle
is when the technology becomes adopted by the mainstream (Linden and Fenn, 2003).
Although developed for the high-tech industry, the technology hype cycle applies to
any
technology. A good example has been the recent corn ethanol hype in the United States. Even
though ethanol production is not a new technology, its application as a substitute for
petroleum-based gasoline created excitement in the market, which followed the technology
hype cycle just described. This hype was fueled even further by tax incentives, which created
many startup companies that today have completely disappeared. At this point, there is a
consensus that corn ethanol could be part of the
mix
of biorenewables in the future, but by
itself it is unlikely that it will solve the transportation fuel problem in the United States.
Technology push versus demand pull
Development of new technologies always requires of four elements in the “innovation chain”:
research, development, demonstration, and deployment (Duke, 2002). The trigger that initiates
the new technology may come as a result of a new discovery at an R&D department or as a
result of an expressed market need. The first case is called a technology-push approach,
whereas the latter is referred to as demand pull, or market pull (Fig. 6.3). Depending on the
trigger, attributes in technology development have different outcomes in terms of development
and marketing. Table 6.1 lists the outcomes for different attributes, and it can be seen that
cases of market pull are more certain than technology push. But there are exceptions to the
rule, and sustainable technologies are one example.
The development of sustainable technologies for the near future is a clear example of a
demand-pull approach. There is a clear need for new technologies and R&D departments
around the world are working on the development of new sources of energy and materials
to create a sustainable society. When vital needs such as these are on the table, incentives
