Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Source: Myhre et al. (1998)
Sowhydowehavetheideathatthegreenhouseeffectmeansrapidglobalwarming?Becausetheproven
greenhouse effect is falsely equated with the related but speculative theory that the greenhouse effect of
CO 2 is dramatically amplified by other effects in the atmosphere, leading to rapid warming instead of the
otherwise expected decelerating warming.
Some predictions of dramatic global warming (and ultimately catastrophic climate change) posit that
the greenhouse effect of CO 2 in the atmosphere will greatly amplify water vapor creation in the atmo-
sphere, which could cause much more warming than CO 2 acting alone would. This kind of reinforcing
interaction is called a positive feedback loop .
What is the evidence for these predictions compared to the greenhouse effect?
To listen to most cultural discussion, predictions of dramatic global warming and associated catastroph-
ic climate change are absolutely certain.
Secretary of State John Kerry said “absolutely certain” in a landmark speech discouraging the people
of Indonesia from using fossil fuels, after they have experienced a major increase in prosperity due to in-
creasing use of fossil fuels:
The science of climate change is leaping out at us like a scene from a 3D movie. It's warning us; it's
compelling us to act. And let there be no doubt in anybody's mind that the science is absolutely certain.
It's something that we understand with absolute assurance of the veracity of that science. . . . Well, 97
percent of climate scientists have confirmed that climate change is happening and that human activity
is responsible. These scientists agree on the causes of these changes and they agree on the potential
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