Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
damental to life as food, clothing, shelter, and medical care—indeed, all of these require cheap, reliable
energy. By failing to consider the benefits of fossil fuel energy, the experts didn't anticipate the spectacular
benefits that energy brought about in the last thirty years.
At the same time, we do have to consider the risks—including predictions that using fossil fuel energy
will lead to catastrophic resource depletion, catastrophic pollution, and catastrophic climate change.
How did those predictions fare? Even if the overall trends are positive, might the anti-fossil fuel experts
have been right about catastrophic depletion, catastrophic pollution, and catastrophic climate change, and
might those problems still be leading us to long-term catastrophe?
These are important questions to answer.
But when we look at the data, a fascinating fact emerges: As we have used more fossil fuels, our re-
source situation, our environment situation, and our climate situation have been improving, too.
MORE FOSSIL FUELS, MORE RESOURCES, BETTER ENVIRONMENT, SAFER
CLIMATE?
Let's start with the popular prediction that we're running out of resources, especially fossil fuels.
If the predictions were right that we were running out of fossil fuel resources, then nearly doubling
fossil fuel use worldwide should have practically depleted us of fossil fuels, even faster than Paul Ehrlich
and others predicted. That's certainly what the experts told us in the 1970s. In a 1977 televised address,
Jimmy Carter, conveying conventional wisdom at the time, told the nation, “We could use up all of the
proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade.”
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A popular Saudi expression at
the time captured this idea: “My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane. His son will
ride a camel.”
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Well, no one in the oil business is riding a camel, because as fossil fuel
use
has increased, fossil fuel
resources
have increased. How is that possible?
The measure for fossil fuel resources is “proven reserves,” which is the amount of coal, oil, or gas that
is available to us affordably, given today's technology. While these statistics are subject to some manipu-
lation—sometimes countries and companies can give misleading data—they are the best information we
have and we have historically
underpredicted
availability.
Let's look at reserves from 1980 to the present for oil and gas, the fossil fuels we are traditionally afraid
will run out. Coal is much easier to find and extract and is considered to be the fossil fuel that is least likely
to run out. Notice how the more we consume, the more reserves increase.
Figure 1.4: More Oil Consumption, More Oil Reserves
