Civil Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
air pollution reduction significantly outweigh those of global climate change
mitigation, at least by a factor of 2, but in most cases of our sensitivity analysis
much more. Still, Bollen et al. (
2009
) do not argue to only restrict energy policy
today to what should be our first priority, local air pollution control, and wait with
the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, Bollen et al. (
2009
) propose to
design policies that simultaneously address these issues, as their combination
creates an additional climate change bonus. As such, climate change mitigation
proves an ancillary benefit of air pollution reduction, rather than the other way
around (Bollen et al.
2009
).
3.2.4 Real Estate Losses as a Result of Sea-Level Rise
The effects of climate change will have severe consequences for low-lying U.S.
coastal real estate. If nothing is done to hold back rising waters, sea-level rise will
simply cause many properties in low-lying coastal areas to be inundated. Even
those properties that remain above water will be more likely to sustain storm
damage, as encroachment of the sea allows storm surges to reach inland areas that
were not previously affected. More intense hurricanes, in addition to sea-level rise,
will increase the likelihood of both flood and wind damage to properties
throughout the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. To estimate the value of real estate losses
from sea-level rise, we have updated a detailed forecast of coastal real estate losses
in the 48 states developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). In
projecting these costs into the future, Ackerman and Stanton (
2008
) assume that
annual costs will be proportional to sea-level rise and to projected GDP. Ackerman
and Stanton (
2008
) calculate the annual loss of real estate from inundation due to
the projected sea-level rise, which reaches 45 inches by 2100 in the business-
as-usual case. These losses amount to $360 billion by 2100, or 0.35 % of GDP
(Ackerman and Stanton
2008
).
No one expects coastal property owners to wait passively for these damages to
occur; those who can afford to protect their properties will undoubtedly do so. But
all the available methods for protection against sea-level rise are problematic and
expensive. It is difficult to imagine any of them being used on a large enough scale
to shelter all low-lying U.S. coastal lands that are at risk under the business-
as-usual case. Elevating homes and other structures is one way to reduce the risk of
flooding, if not hurricane-induced wind damage. A Federal Emergency Manage-
ment Agency (FEMA) (
1998
) estimate of the cost of elevating a frame
construction house on a slab-on-grade foundation by two feet is $58 per square
foot, with an added cost of $0.93 per square foot for each additional foot of
elevation (FEMA
1998
). This means that it would cost $58,000 to elevate a house
with a 1,000-square foot footprint by two feet. It is not clear whether building
elevation is applicable to multi-storey structures; at the least, it is sure to be more
expensive and difficult (Ackerman and Stanton
2008
).
