Civil Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
capacity of soils, and in patterns of human settlement. The direst predictions about
the impacts of global warming warn about greatly increased risks of violent
conflict over increasingly scarce resources such as freshwater and arable land
(Raleigh and Urdal
2007
). Raleigh and Urdal (
2007
) argue that our best guess
about the future has to be based on our knowledge about the relationship between
demography, environment and violent conflict in the past. Previous rigorous
studies in the field have mostly focused on national-level aggregates. Raleigh and
Urdal (
2007
) represent a new approach to assess the impact of environment on
internal armed conflict by using georeferenced (GIS) data and small geographical,
rather than political, units of analysis. It addresses some of the most important
factors assumed to be strongly influenced by global warming: land degradation,
freshwater availability, and population density and change. While population
growth and density are associated with increased risks, the effects of land degra-
dation and water scarcity are weak, negligible or insignificant (Raleigh and Urdal
2007
).
Allouche (
2011
) looks at the interrelationship between water and food security.
More specifically, Allouche (
2011
) examines the resilience and sustainability of
water and food systems to shocks and stresses linked to different levels and
intensity of conflict, global trade and climate change. Allouche (
2011
) makes four
points: (1) that resource scarcity as a driver of conflict is inconclusive especially at
regional and national levels (2) most insecurities surrounding water and food are
explained by political power, social and gender relations; (3) global trade has
enabled national food and water security but that is now threatened by increasing
food prices, food sovereignty movements and land 'grabbing' (4) and that water
and food security will face major challenges under conditions of climate change
(Allouche
2011
).
Climates more suitable for Eurasian agriculture are associated with a decreased
likelihood of conflict, while freshwater resources per capita are positively asso-
ciated with the likelihood of conflict. Moreover, positive changes in rainfall are
associated with a decreased likelihood of conflict in the following year (Hendrix
and Glaser
2007
).
In climate change discourse, climate mobility is often characterised as the
production of 'refugees', with a tendency to discount long histories of ordinary
mobility among affected populations. The case of Tuvalu in the Pacific juxtaposes
migration as everyday practice with climate refugee narratives (Farbotko and
Lazrus
2012
).
3.1.4 Climate Change and Human Culture
If solar variability affects human culture, it most likely does so by changing the
climate in which the culture operates (Feynman
2007
).
Geel et al. (
2004
) described hypothesis regarding climate change and the
expansion of the Scythian culture after 850 BC. In southcentral Siberia, archae-
ological evidence suggests an acceleration of cultural development and an increase
