Civil Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
3.1.1 The Global Warming Price
The heated argument about economic costs, however, barely touched one vitally
important issue: the costs of NOT taking action on climate. What if last summer's
Russian heat wave and drought, which destroyed one-third of the country's wheat
crop, or the catastrophic floods in Pakistan and China, or category 5 hurricanes like
Katrina are just glimpses of future havoc from warming left unchecked? Certain
events would have been extremely unlikely to have occurred without global
warming and that includes the Russian heat wave and wild fires, and the Pakistan,
Chinese, and Indian floods (Carey
2011
).
Droughts, floods, wildfires, and hurricanes have already caused multibillion-
dollar losses, and these extreme weather events will likely become more frequent
and more devastating as the climate continues to change. Tourism, agriculture, and
other weather-dependent industries will be hit especially hard, but no one will
be exempt. Household budgets, as well as business balance sheets, will feel the
impact of higher energy and water costs. Ruth et al. (
2007
) estimates what the
United States will pay as a result of four of the most serious impacts of global
warming in a business-as-usual scenario—that is, if we do not take steps to push
back against climate change (Ruth et al.
2007
):
• Hurricane damages: $422 billion in economic losses caused by the increasing
intensity of Atlantic and Gulf Coast storms. In the business-as-usual climate
future, higher sea-surface temperatures result in stronger and more damaging
hurricanes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Even with storms of the same
intensity, future hurricanes will cause more damage as higher sea levels exac-
erbate storm surges, flooding and erosion. In recent years, hurricane damages
have averaged $12 billion and more than 120 deaths per year. With business-as-
usual emissions, average annual hurricane damages in 2100 will have grown by
$422 billion and an astounding 760 deaths just from climate change impacts.
• Real estate losses: $360 billion in damaged or destroyed residential real estate as
a result of rising sea levels. Our business-as-usual scenario forecasts 23 inches
of sea-level rise by 2050 and 45 inches by 2100. If nothing is done to hold back
the waves, rising sea levels will inundate low-lying coastal properties. Even
those properties that remain above water will be more likely to sustain storm
damage, as encroachment of the sea allows storm surges to reach inland areas
that were not previously affected. By 2100, U.S. residential real estate losses
will be $360 billion per year.
• Energy costs: $141 billion in increasing energy costs as a result of the rising
demand for energy. As temperatures rise, higher demand for air conditioning
and refrigeration across the country will increase energy costs, and many
households and businesses, especially in the North, that currently do not have air
conditioners will purchase them. Only a fraction of these increased costs will be
offset by reduced demand for heat in Northern states. The highest net energy
costs—after taking into consideration savings from lower heating bills—will fall
on Southeast and Southwest states. Total costs will add up to more than $200
