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3 and 4 C by 2055). In contrast, projections for tropical mountains such as the
tropical Andes or some African mountains are lower (between 2 and 3 C) than
projections for Mediterranean mountains. Projections for other mountain regions
located in areas influenced by Mediterranean climates such as South Africa or
Australia report increases of temperatures 1-2 C lower than Mediterranean moun-
tains (Nogues-Bravo et al., 2007). Overall, these results suggest that Mediterranean
mountains might be more exposed to climate change than other mountain regions
(Giorgi, 2006).
Regional trends show similar projected climatic changes across the different
Mediterranean mountain ranges analysed in this study (Figure 9.2). Averaging over
the five AOGCMs used by Nogues-Bravo et al. (2008), the highest and lowest in-
creases in average temperature were predicted for the Dinaric Alps (3.4 C) under
A1FI, a pessimistic scenario for 2055, and for the Apennines, Pinthos and Atlas
(3.1 C), respectively. Averaging again across the five AOGCMs used by Nogues-
Bravo et al. (2008), the greatest reductions in annual rainfall were predicted for the
Taurus Mountains under a pessimistic scenario for 2055 (14.8%) and the lowest for
the Dinaric Alps (8.8%). Regional trends, averaging across the five AOGCMs, show
that the greatest and smallest reductions in spring rainfall were predicted for the
Taurus (8.8%) and the Dinaric Alps (2.3%), respectively, for the same pessimistic
scenario by 2055.
Figure 9.2 Mountainous areas analyzed in this chapter. Mountain areas have been defined fol-
lowing the UNEP-WCMC classification. Analyses of climatic and Normalized Difference Vege-
tation Index (NDVI) trends are just within the strict limits of the mountain ranges in this figure.
Pyrenees (pink), Apennines (orange), Dinaric Alps (green), Pindos (blue), Taurus (purple) and
Atlas (red). ( A full colour version of this figure appears in the colour plate section )
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