Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
First, global foodgrain markets have matured in terms of traded volume,
as percentage of total global production and consumption (Table 2.4). Wheat
and maize markets have always been relatively robust. In 1966, India imported
more than 10 million tons of wheat, albeit provided as food aid under PL 480,
without large disruptions in the international wheat market. On the other hand,
during the 1960s and 1970s, Indonesia's 3 million tons of imports in a 7- to 10-
million-ton international rice market could have had significant impact on in-
ternational rice prices. But the international rice market is now approximately
25 million tons annually, production has become more stable because of irri-
gation and pest control, and new exporters (particularly Vietnam) have become
major participants. Bangladesh successfully utilized privatized international
trade, albeit with certain favorable circumstances, as a major source of its price
stabilization and food security program to adjust to a poor harvest in late 1997
and a massive flood in 1998 (Dorosh 2001). In 1998 Indonesia was able to im-
TABLE 2.4
Changes in the trade of cereals in the world market
Indicator/year
Rice
Wheat
Coarse grain
World trade (as percentage of production)
1972-74
3.54
18.65
10.40
1975-77
3.93
17.81
12.24
1978-80
4.70
19.51
13.65
1981-83
4.04
21.70
12.71
1984-86
3.87
18.43
10.80
1987-89
3.72
21.28
12.72
1990-92
3.90
19.25
11.07
1993-95
5.20
18.68
10.97
1996-98
6.12
17.42
10.30
1999-2001
6.26
18.63
11.81
2002-03
7.27
19.40
12.02
World trade volume (million tons)
1972-74
7.79
65.64
65.14
1975-77
9.53
67.57
82.70
1978-80
12.35
84.05
100.16
1981-83
11.71
101.34
93.43
1984-86
12.25
93.85
88.62
1987-89
12.29
107.91
97.52
1990-92
13.82
108.42
92.53
1993-95
18.93
100.87
90.51
1996-98
23.73
103.37
92.14
1999-2001
25.08
108.65
103.44
2002-03
27.50
110.00
104.80
SOURCE
: Authors' calculations based on annual time series data from USDA-FAS (2004a).
