Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
7,764.50
7,838.20
8,080.00
8,067.20
9,329.90
9,577.10
9,553.00
10,329.00
1,821.20
1,627.20
1,380.00
1,257.20
941.9
1,602.10
1,818.00
1,927.00
5,972.30
6,221.00
6,490.00
6,810.00
7,263.00
7,266.00
6,488.00
6,718.00
-29
-10
210
0
1125
709
1247
1684
-0.37
-0.13
2.60
0.00
12.06
7.40
13.05
16.30
6,137.30
6,458.20
6,822.80
7,125.30
7,727.80
7,759.10
7,626.00
7,819.00
5,587.90
5,895.00
6,137.00
6,504.30
7,064.80
7,096.10
7,030.00
7,188.00
161.2
159
173
178
191
190
174
177
388.2
404.2
512.8
443
472
473
422
454
1,627.20
1,380.00
1,257.20
941.9
1,602.10
1,818.00
1,927.10
2,510.00
432.9
460.4
431.1
375.7
362.4
394.8
419.9
634.5
300.2
95.8
28.7
525.2
739.3
911.9
559.8
619.4
730.3
537.5
714.5
683.9
595.3
17,500
18,200
18,300
19,500
21,100
21,300
20,900
21,400
86.6
89.1
90.5
96.3
102.2
100.3
97.2
94.2
93
76
69
96
102
100
97
114
64,510
66,155
67,798
67,751
69,148
70,742
72,335
76,320
b
Based on the final estimates of the Rice and Corn Production Survey of Bureau of Agricultural Statistics;
1998/99 production based on the April forecast.
c
Based on NFA records of actual volume of import and export shipments.
d
Estimated based on the residual method of calculation.
ever, records of the agency indicate that almost 40 percent of the volume con-
tracted with the Department of Foreign Trade of Thailand arrived past the ship-
ment period, as was the case with other government suppliers, although to vary-
ing degrees.
Second, NFA records show no pattern in the time spent to conclude con-
tracts, starting from the time the president authorizes the importation. For ex-
ample, in 1995, NFA obtained the authority to import 300,000 tons in mid-May,
but it was not until mid-July that the first contract for the shipment of 25,000
tons within a month was concluded. The next three contracts were concluded
during November and December, when there was reduced harvest, as correctly
forecasted by the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics.
The timing of rice import shipments is just as critical as the import vol-
ume. Ideally, shipments must be in the country and strategically positioned
before the onset of the lean months, which are July to September. With large
import volumes confined to a single importer—the government in this case—
shipments should necessarily be programmed earlier, or arrivals may spill over
into the start of the main harvest, thereby depressing farmgate prices. Table 7.4
presents the monthly arrivals of imported rice from 1995 to 1999 as a percent-
