Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
Managing Disasters
Bangladesh is prone to natural disasters, such as floods and cyclones. The po-
litical and popular perception is that an increased level of food stock is neces-
sary for combating hunger in the wake of natural disasters that lead to produc-
tion shortfall. The PFDS is an important conduit for providing food to people
affected by natural calamities and also serve to depress rising prices fueled by
speculative market behavior.
Ravallion (1985, 1990) provides econometric evidence that low public
stock, along with extremely high world foodgrain prices and delayed U.S. food
aid deliveries, further exacerbated the situation and led to the famine of 1974.
Osmani (1991) points out the positive effects of adequate public stock in dis-
couraging speculative market behavior following shortfalls in production in
1979/80 and 1984/85; Hossain (1990) examines imports by the government
during 1978-90, which have depressed prices and hurt producers. However, the
broad argument that a greater stock level in the PFDS is an instrument for price
stabilization appears to be valid. 2
On the other hand, Del Ninno et al. (2001), with respect to 1998-99 floods
in Bangladesh, differ with the above findings. They argue that private-sector im-
porters rather than public stock levels contributed to meet the shortfall in pro-
duction. There are, however, at least four missing elements in this analysis that
need further discussion. First, the government of Bangladesh successfully man-
aged the 1988-89 floods when there were no private-sector imports because of
policy restrictions. Second, no analysis has been provided regarding targeted
delivery, which was substantial. For instance, after the flood of 1998, under the
VGD program alone, 22.5 million people from 4.2 million families were pro-
vided food for 7 months. The program proved to be successful not only in terms
of its huge coverage, but also in terms of management, speed, and cost effec-
tiveness. All these measures contributed to avert the famine that international
media and major opposition parties predicted in 1998 (Planning Commission
2001). 3 Third, it should be distinctly understood that private-sector imports may
lead to greater availability, but not accessibility for the flood-affected people de-
pendent on food support programs from the government.
Finally, the analysis and the conclusion drawn by Dorosh (2001) pro-
vide some indications of the extent of reliability of the Indian rice market as a
source of supply. The qualifying word used is “fortunately.” Fortunately for
Bangladesh, market supplies of rice in India in 1998/99 were plentiful. Besides
2. A similar view is held by Raisuddin Ahmed. For details see Ahmed (1989, 197-219). In
the same study, Chowdhury examines the question, has PFDS furthered the cause of food security
in Bangladesh? The answer is: “Whilst inter-year instability (in prices) remains too high to draw
any comfort, the PFDS has contributed to the containment of inter-year variability in prices”
(Ahmed 1989, 133-158).
3. The British Broadcasting Corporation, for instance, predicted 2 million deaths by starvation.
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