Civil Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Risk
(consequence/unit time)
=
Frequency
(event/unit time)
× Magnitude
(consequence/
event)
Thus there are a wide range of types of risk, such as business,
commercial or economic risk, life safety and injury risk, etc.
These have varying degrees of relevance to the different aspects
of through-life design and how these perspectives apply to the
circumstances of a particular project.
In the context of a commercial project risk is commonly
viewed as uncertainty of outcome, whether that has a bene-
ficial effect, in terms of creating a positive opportunity, or
has an adverse (negative) impact. Generally some amount of
risk-taking is inevitable, whatever the nature of the project.
Commonly the value to a business of the potentially beneficial
outcome makes it worthwhile to consciously and deliberately
accept a certain degree of commercial risk. Risk management
is the process of actively evaluating, accepting and controlling
some risks; whilst seeking to minimise or exclude some other
risks. The process includes all activities required to iden-
tify and control the risks associated with the selected project
option.
Successful risk management requires senior management
commitment, ownership and understanding of the processes
involved, as well as an active risk analysis and management
regime which is reviewed regularly. Such processes work
most successfully in a constructive 'no-blame' company or
project culture. In this the organisation's or project's attitude
to risk has a very great effect on how matters are approached.
If the organisation or project team has a very low toler-
ance of risk (i.e. is risk averse), the objective could well be
to avoid 'failure' of any kind. Conversely, if the approach
is more 'entrepreneurial', the desire to 'succeed' will typ-
ically encourage participants to be more innovative, to take
more risk where this is appropriate and to make more effort
to monitor and manage the recognised risks associated with
a particular project.
As risk profiles change with time, management of risk needs
to be an ongoing process carried on throughout the life of a
project or organisation. The goal is to develop risk manage-
ment plans that allow risks to be dealt with quickly and effect-
ively should they arise.
Although these considerations might commonly be divided
into two main phases relating to (1) the design and construc-
tion of the asset and (2) its operation and use, there clearly are
strong linkages between these phases in the life of the asset
that need to be taken into account and managed appropriately.
Risk management is a systematic approach which is used to
avoid, reduce or control risks. The course of action followed
is to assess uncertainty by identifying and assessing hazards,
understanding, acting on and communicating risk issues. The
goal of risk management is to protect the owners and users
from various factors such as economic losses, injuries, etc.
There needs to be a balance between the cost of managing risk
and the benefits expected from taking the risk.
In these processes there clearly are numerous aspects to be
considered including a need to:
Establish the nature of the hazards involved.
■
Establish what hazard scenarios should be considered.
■
Make an evaluation of the likelihood of occurrence and the poten-
■
tial consequences.
Consider the potential outcomes (consequences).
■
Consider whether there are particular classes of risk, such as those
■
imposed by statutory obligations under law or associated with
specific business objectives.
Clarify whether the risks change with time.
■
Identify the internal and external stakeholders involved.
■
Clarify when a risk should be controlled or reduced and how can
■
this be done.
Define which risks are to be carried and by whom, together with
■
the criteria which should be used in this process.
Thus once a hazard has been identified and quantified in some
manner, the decision has to be made whether the associated
risk can be accepted or not. Eliminating hazards is the prime
objective and then, if this has not proved possible, to invoke the
steps involved in reducing risks from the remaining hazards.
If risks are considered to be too large for direct acceptance,
the standard approach is to look for adequate counter-measures.
When planning counter-measures, it is first necessary to recognise
possible hazards. The aim is to detect those events or processes
where a significant benefit can be obtained from a proportionally
small input effort. Possible counter-measures can be technical or
administrative and can fall within the following strategies:
■
Avoid
the risk by removing the hazard by changing the concept or
the objectives.
■
Reduce
the cause of the risk by modifying or altering the nature of
the hazard or by reducing the likely frequency of occurrence or by
modifying the potential consequences as far as may be possible in
the circumstances.
■
Control
the risks by employing monitoring and communication
techniques - which in the case of engineering systems might be
by being vigilant and through the use of suitable alarm systems,
inspection regimes, etc.
■
Overcome
the risks by providing adequate strength or capacity for
the worst credible loading or performance requirement.
Risk assessment for activities in the design and construction
phases needs to reflect the particular tasks being analysed and
the wider circumstances which might exist. Accordingly each
is situation specific. Risk assessment for the planned life-cycle
of the system under consideration involves consideration of:
the potential frequency/probability of occurrence of the hazardous
■
situation;
the severity/consequence of the worst possible outcome arising
■
from the hazard.
