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Case-Based Reasoning for Prognosis of Threatening
Influenza Waves
Rainer Schmidt and Lothar Gierl
Universität Rostock, Institut für Medizinische Informatik und Biometrie,
Rembrandtstr. 16 / 17, D-18055 Rostock, Germany
{rainer.schmidt/lothar.gierl}@medizin.uni-rostock.de
Abstract.
The goal of the TeCoMed project is to compute early warnings
against forthcoming waves or even epidemics of infectious diseases, especially
of influenza, and to send them to interested practitioners, pharmacists etc. in the
German federal state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Usually, each winter
one influenza wave can be observed in Germany. In some years they are nearly
unnoticeable, while in other years doctors and pharmacists even run out of
vaccine. Because of the irregular cyclic behaviour it is insufficient to determine
average values based on former years and to give warnings as soon as such
values are noticeably overstepped. So, we have developed a method that
combines Temporal Abstraction with Case-based Reasoning. The idea is to
search for former, similar cases and to make use of them for the decision
whether early warning is appropriate or not
.
1
Introduction
The goal of our TeCoMed project is to compute early warnings against forthcoming
waves or even epidemics of infectious diseases, especially of influenza, and to send
them to interested practitioners, pharmacists etc. in the German federal state
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Available data are written confirmations of
unfitness for work, which have to be sent by affected employees to their employers
and to their health insurance companies. These confirmations contain the diagnoses
made by their doctors. Since 1997 we receive these data from the main German health
insurance company.
Many people believe influenza to be rather harmless. However, every year
influenza virus attacks worldwide over 100 million people [1] and kills alone in the
United States between 20.000 and 40.000 people [2]. The most lethal outbreak ever,
the Spanish Flu in 1918, claimed 20-40 million lives worldwide, which is more than
the second world war on both sides together [3].
In fact, influenza is the last of the classic plagues of the past which has yet to be
brought under control [4]. Consequently, in the recent years some of the most
developed countries have started to generate influenza surveillance systems (e.g. US:
www.flustar.com, France [4], and Japan [5]).
Usually, each winter one influenza wave can be observed in Germany. However,
the intensities of these waves vary very much. In some years they are nearly
