The future of international environmental law - Introduction to International Environmental Law - page 195

The main problem is that only a small proportion of greenhouse gas emitters
have legally committed themselves to reducing their emissions under the
Kyoto Protocol. Many of the worst emitters, such as the United States or the
emerging Asian powers (China and India), have not committed themselves to
legally binding reductions.
The Durban Conference has already been evaluated in both pessimistic and
optimistic terms. For the majority the Durban Conference managed to
actually accomplish much more than had been anticipated.
First, the decision was taken to negotiate another commitment period to
the Kyoto Protocol of fi ve to eight years. Many issues remain open - for
instance, what reductions the Kyoto Protocol parties would be prepared to
commit themselves to - but a consensus to another commitment period
alone was considered an accomplishment. (In the 2012 Doha Climate
Conference, the parties managed to agree on a second commitment period
lasting until 2020, but with the commitment of fewer states than the fi rst
commitment period.)
Second, and perhaps most importantly, the parties agreed to negotiate 'a
protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force
under the Convention applicable to all Parties'. The wording does not
make it clear what kind of a legal outcome the parties actually committed
themselves to. The goal of this negotiation process is to set binding emission
reductions on all parties after 2020 - not only for industrialized countries -
and extending also to include the United States. The principle of common
but differentiated responsibilities seems to be gradually releasing its grip on
the climate regime.
Few had believed that the Durban Conference could revive the Kyoto
Protocol in the short term and initiate serious negotiations on the reduction
of emissions for all world states. This was a real achievement. The developing
world's share of greenhouse gas emissions has increased exponentially, and the
fact that both the developing nations and the United States committed them-
selves to the same negotiation process for legally binding reductions is a great
success. The EU played a signifi cant role as the mediator for this 'roadmap'.
The EU's condition for agreeing to another commitment period was that
other large economies commit themselves to negotiating a legally binding
agreement. Industrial nations, African states and small island nations all
supported the EU's approach, increasing the pressure on other signifi cant
negotiating parties and resulting in a real achievement. The Durban
Conference also made many other important decisions.
However, since the Durban Climate Conference it has become apparent
that the world community will struggle to keep the rise in the global
temperature below two degrees. According to the climate change regime, this
is the limit we cannot exceed if we are to observe the objective recorded in
the Framework Convention on Climate Change: stabilization of greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous