Travel Reference
In-Depth Information
Climate change: implications for tourism
Defining climate change
The IPPC (2007, p30) defines climate change as 'any change in climate over
time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity',
although it usually refers to anthropogenic changes since the early 1900s (Met
Office, 2009). While there has previously been much debate about climate
change, recent scientific study now confirms that 'warming of the climate sys-
tem is unequivocal' (IPCC, 2007, p30) and there is a high confidence level
(>90 per cent) that this is due to human activity. Global average temperature
has risen by 0.7ºC over the last 100 years (IPCC, 2007) and mid-range esti-
mates project a 2-3.5ºC rise this century (Met Office, 2009). The driver for
this change is GHG production. GHGs arise from a variety of sources, with
the burning of fossil fuel accounting for 56.6 per cent (Gössling and Upham,
2009). Other sources include deforestation (17.3 per cent), methane (14.3 per
cent) and nitrous oxide (7.9 per cent) (IPCC, 2007). CO
2
is the main anthro-
pogenic GHG. Its annual emissions grew by about 80 per cent between 1970
and 2004 (IPCC, 2007).
The impacts of climate change will be global, although the effects will be
differentiated, with greater impacts in some regions and on some activities.
Impacts are difficult to predict, but include sea-level rise and changes to wind,
temperature and precipitation patterns. Such changes to environmental condi-
tions also have significant consequences for socio-economic systems (Stern,
2006). Poorer parts of the world will be affected first (Ravindranath and
Sathaye, 2002) and, ironically, on the whole, those countries producing the
most GHG emissions seem likely to be affected least. The impacts on devel-
oping countries are driven by three factors: geographical position (they are
most at risk from climate change); dependence on agriculture, the most cli-
mate-sensitive sector; and low income, resulting in low adaptive capacity
(Stern, 2006). The IPCC (2007) identify the following regions as most at
threat:
• the Arctic
• Africa
• small islands
• Asian and African mega-deltas.
Climate change is therefore much more than an environmental disaster. For
example, declining crop yields will threaten the food supply of hundreds of
millions of people in Africa (Parry et al, 2004), and there is potential for water
stress in many regions of the world. According to the Met Office (2009), 1.5
billion people currently live in water-stressed regions, but that could increase
to 7 billion by the 2050s. This will lead to large-scale migration and poverty,
and 'over the next half-century, climate change could impede achievement of
the Millennium Development Goals' (IPCC, 2007, p70).
