Travel Reference
In-Depth Information
Tourism is, therefore, in one sense a microcosm of this wider network of trans-
port and communication including the prevalence of the mobile telephone and
internet, as well as actual travel between and within places. The interface
between the informational world and cultural values that ensue from changes
to technology could well intensify in a world that is less confident about the
future based on automobility and aeromobility (Cwerner, 2009; Dennis and
Urry, 2009).
An analysis of past trends, therefore, may not provide the answers to
future development. There is perhaps a need to refresh our thinking. How will
tourism develop in a world constrained by dwindling finite resources and
increasing pollution? A number of scenarios have been proposed. Butler
(2008), for example, reasons that tourism will, for the most part, follow a
similar pattern to recent decades. He notes that there will be some change,
however, notably a decline in long-haul tourism, concluding that:
Long haul travel is likely to suffer most as short and medium
distance travel can be undertaken by other means than flying.
One scenario would see the remote and distant destinations
become even more the purviews of the affluent than at present,
with the mass market being concentrated closer to home.
(Butler, 2008, p350)
There is a degree of consensus aligned to support this view in the wider liter-
ature; that is, long-haul tourism will be the first market sector to witness
decline (Peeters and Schouten, 2006; Yeoman et al, 2007). This will affect
markets from the northern hemisphere and destinations in the south.
Some predict that there will still be a major growth pattern in Asia, Africa
and Latin America, in terms of both intra- and inter-regional travel. This
seems unlikely, however, in view of the lack of agency on the part of many of
the countries involved, limited resource availability and increased impacts of
climatic change. For many tourists in the southern hemisphere slow travel is,
in physical terms, a way of life, as a combination of coach, train or ferries and
walking are still primary modes. Whether or not there also exists a slow travel
mindset, in relation to the travel experience and environmental conservation,
is not known. These are simply the accessible modes available to some of the
population; others have severely limited mobility. But even in the poorest
economies of the world the use of the car is being encouraged, infrastructure
provided and increasing consumption of finite resources given over to auto-
mobility.
Most developing countries aspire to modernize, and this currently involves
increased mobility by car and two-wheeled powered vehicles. This includes the
world's two giant developing economies, India and China. Not surprisingly,
Chamon et al (2008) forecast rapid rises in car ownership in China and India
that will change the face of domestic tourism in these countries. The current
low levels of 15.8 cars per 1000 population in China, they predict, will
increase to 411.6 in 2050; this compares with the current average in advanced
economies of 482.4.
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