Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Figure 7.16
Decadal frequencies of hurricanes and
tropical1996-2000 storms in the Atlantic Ocean, 1886-2000.
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE PREDICTION MODEL
new developments
Tropical cyclones can cause major damage because of the strength of their winds, and
associated flooding caused by rainfall or oceanic storm surges. Weather forecasters use
atmospheric models to predict the tracks of these storms and provide storm warnings or
even initiate evacuation of areas likely to be affected.
More recently attempts have been made by a research group at Colorado State
University in the United States to predict the degree of activity of a hurricane season in
the North Atlantic up to eleven months in advance. For the tracks of individual storms, it
is only possible to produce reliable estimates for a few days ahead. The forecasts of
future activity are based on the values of a series of indices which have been shown to be
related to subsequent seasonal variations of Atlantic activity. These indices involve
oceanic and atmospheric properties which show statistical relationships with hurricane
activity The detailed physical processes which would be required to develop the storms
