Biology Reference
In-Depth Information
100
200 or fewer
201 to 350
351 to 600
601 to 1100
1101 or more
80
60
40
20
0
Date
Figure 8.3
Price graph for the contract “How many cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) will be confirmed
in the United States by end of May 2009?”
100
1 to 10 states
11 to 20 states
21 to 30 states
31 to 40 states
41 to 50 states
80
60
40
20
0
Date
Figure 8.4
Price graph for the contract “How many states in the United States will have at least one con-
firmed case of novel influenza A (H1N1) by the end of May 2009?”
this limitation. For many weeks, the market consensus was that novel influ-
enza A (H1N1) would affect more than 100 countries. However, for a number
of days in June, the number of countries affected seemed to level off at fewer
than 90 countries. Subsequently, a few trades caused the price of the con-
tract based on “between 76 and 100 countries” to increase dramatically. A
few days later, more than 100 total countries were reported affected. Did the
market miss it? Yes and no. Technically, yes, however, the general trend of
