Biomedical Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
of whether to take an action, the selected alternative must improve the lot of at least one member of the
affected group and cannot worsen the plight of any other member (known as a Pareto improvement).
Thus, economics would drive the decision toward improved utility, at least for that one person.
Therefore, technology broadens the horizon through which economics operates. When firms invest,
they increase capital; increasing our input means more output and more economic growth. And when
capital is depreciating, it is less productive, yielding less output. Technology also allows higher levels
of sustainability for capital.
As discussed in Chapter 1 the economist, Malthus did not realize that technology could increase food
supply. And his modern day disciple Paul Ehrlich, gives an exceedingly grim prognosis for the future:
“Each year food production in underdeveloped countries falls a bit further behind burgeoning population
growth, and people go to bed a little hungrier. While there are temporary or local reversals of this trend,
it now seems inevitable that it will continue to its logical conclusion: mass starvation.”
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Not only does
Ehrlich state that the world is headed toward calamity, he is convinced that there is nothing anyone
can really do that will provide anything more than temporary abatement. To focus on Ehrlich's attitude
towards technology as part of the solution to the impending problem is to see Ehrlich's “technological
pessimism,” so to speak. Ehrlich's lack of confidence in technology to deal with the problems plaguing
the future is seen in his statement: “But, you say, surely Science (with a capital “S”) will find a way for
us to occupy the other planets of our solar system and eventually of other stars before we get all that
crowded.”
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Ehrlich was sure that “the battle to feed humanity is over.” He insisted that India would
be unable to provide sustenance for the 200 million person influx in its population by 1980. He was
wrong - Ehrlich did not count on the “green revolution.”
As this predictive framework earned the title of “dismal science” for economics, engineers look upon
the same problems with more of a technical optimism. Engineers bump up the Malthusian curve by
finding ways to improve conditions. In
The
Engineer
of
2020
, one finds descriptions of the various
ways engineers in the future will help to solve the very same problems about which Ehrlich (and the
Malthusian model in general) is concerned. Where Ehrlich considered technology's role in solving the
problem would only be seen through how “improved technology has greatly increased the potential of
war as a population control device,”
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engineers look towards technology not as Ehrlich's “means for
self-extermination”
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but rather they opt to use it to support and improve life in the future.
According to National Academy of Engineering, the world's population will approach 8 billion
people; much of this increase will be seen in groups that are today considered underdeveloped countries,
mainly in Asia and Africa. Apparently, “by 2015, and for the first time in history, the majority of people,
mostly poor will reside in urban centers, mostly in countries that lack the economic, social, and physical
infrastructures to support a burgeoning population.”
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However, engineers see in the challenge posed
by the highly crowded and densely population world of 2020 as an opportunity for “the application of
thoughtfully constructed solutions through the work of engineers.”
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Likewise, engineers look upon the
necessity for improved health care delivery in the world of future with confidence. The key word is
confidence, and not “arrogance.” Engineers must make advanced technologies accessible to this ever-
growing global population base. In the next twenty years, positive implications on human health, will be
possible due to improved air quality and the control and clean up of hazardous waste sites, and focused
efforts to treat diseases like malaria and AIDS.
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Engineers believe that they can solve the problems posed by the future, as opposed to views like the
one posed by Ehrlich who sees a future where “small pockets of
Homo
sapiens
hold on for a while in
the Southern Hemisphere, but slowly die out as social systems break down, radiation poisoning takes
