Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
follows that of South Africa (World Bank, 2005). But over the past two years, domestic
prices have been rising by 10% annually (World Bank, 2005). According to the IMF (2003)
and the World Bank, the high oil prices and the frequent salary increases put considerable
pressure on domestic prices. There was a salary increase for civil servants in 2003 whose
implementation process was completed in 2004 (Ministry of Finance, 2004).
The domestic prices relevant for the sensitivity analyses are domestic costs of maize
production. The most important of these costs are those related to labour and the operation
of machinery for the cultivation of more land expected to be brought into production
when broad-based trade liberalization is implemented. In order not to give maize undue
advantage in terms of cost structure, the sensitivity analysis has been based on an annual
increase in the prices of these inputs at the rate of 10% in the first three years and later
increasing to 15% over the remaining 17 years of the forecast period. Product prices and
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
4,028
4,834
5,800
6,960
8,352
10,023
12,027
14,433
17,319
20,783
24,940
29,928
90
94
99
104
109
115
121
127
133
140
147
154
513
539
566
594
624
655
688
723
759
797
836
878
59
62
65
68
72
75
79
83
87
91
96
101
37
39
41
43
45
48
50
52
55
58
61
64
16
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
27
115
121
127
133
140
147
154
162
170
178
187
196
830
871
915
961
1,009
1,059
1,112
1,168
1,226
1,288
1,352
1,420
174
179
184
190
195
201
207
213
220
226
233
240
108
112
115
119
122
126
130
133
137
142
146
150
65
67
69
71
73
75
78
80
82
85
87
90
217
223
230
237
244
252
259
267
275
283
292
300
59
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
77
79
81
1,240
1,277
1,315
1,354
1,395
1,437
1,480
1,524
1,570
1,617
1,666
1,716
783
806
831
855
881
908
935
963
992
1,021
1,052
1,084
2,645
2,725
2,806
2,891
2,977
3,067
3,159
3,253
3,351
3,451
3,555
3,662
553
1,237
2,079
3,109
4,366
5,897
7,757
10,012
12,742
16,044
20,033
24,847
0.83
0.69
0.57
0.48
0.41
0.34
0.29
0.25
0.21
0.18
0.15
0.13
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