Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
On the basis of what is known about their policy relevance and the insights they provide
into the competitiveness and comparative advantage questions, the study examined the
effect of changes on prices and yield on the same ratios already examined in a the purely
static framework. Tables 7.11 and 7.12 present the sensitivity analyses under alternative
scenarios of the enterprise budget based on prices and yield levels potentially realizable
within the economy. Table 7.13 presents a comparison of all the outcomes, namely the
social and private gross margins and the PAM ratios which were examined earlier under
the static assumption.
As the results show, the key PAM parameters, as well as the production performance index
of gross margin, are highly sensitive to the changes in prices and yield levels. The analysis
assumed an annual price increase in line with current trends in the economy and outlook for
the future. Official data shows that the rate of inflation is about 5.4% per annum and closely
Table 7.11. Sensitivity analysis under alternative scenarios of enterprise budget (2004-2021).
Year
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Revenue
850
978
1,124
1,349
1,619
1,942
2,331
2,797
3,357
Tradable input
Seed
58
61
64
67
70
74
78
82
86
Fertiliser: 2.3.2(38)+zn
331
348
365
383
402
422
444
466
489
LAN 28%
38
40
42
44
46
48
51
53
56
Insecticide: Decis
24
25
26
28
29
31
32
34
35
Malathion
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
14
15
Stalk-borer controller
74
78
82
86
90
94
99
104
109
Total tradable inputs
535
562
590
619
650
683
717
753
790
Domestic inputs
Labour: Weeding
133
137
141
145
150
154
159
164
169
Fertiliser application
83
86
88
91
94
96
99
102
105
Pest control
50
51
53
55
56
58
60
61
63
Reaping and handling
166
171
176
182
187
193
199
205
211
Dryer fees
45
46
48
49
51
52
54
55
57
Tractor hire
950
979
1,008
1,038
1,069
1,101
1,134
1,168
1,203
Sheller hire
600
618
637
656
675
696
716
738
760
Total domestic inputs
2,027
2,088
2,151
2,215
2,282
2,350
2,421
2,493
2,568
Gross margins
-1,712
-1,672
-1,617
-1,486
-1,313
-1,091
-807
-449
-2
DRC
6.44
5.02
4.03
3.04
2.36
1.87
1.50
1.22
1.00
Values in SZL.
 
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