Welfare and incentive effects of possible changes in the regulatory environment of the maize market in Swaziland - Institutional Constraints to Small Farmer Development in Southern Africa - page 126

reductions in the area planted seemed to have been most dramatic for the Lowveld and the
Lubombo Plateau (Table 7.2). With regard to production, the picture is equally disturbing,
with maize output in 2003/2004 being a mere 69% of the average production over the
previous 5 years. As shown in Table 7.4, total production of maize in 1998/99 was 107,340
tonnes whereas in 2003/2004 it had fallen to 60,608 tonnes.

The past few years have been rather difficult for the maize industry. According to an FAO
mission, the past three years have been marked by unfavourable weather patterns, featuring
below average rainfall which has drastically affected maize production in Swaziland,
(FAO, 2004). The upshot seems to have been the withdrawal of many farmers from maize
production in the face of persistent crop failures and losses in agricultural incomes. In no
small way, this phenomenon has exacerbated the poverty situation already complicated by
the high rates of unemployment and underemployment in the country.

As Table 7.4 shows, the foregoing situation has posed serious threats for food security in
a country where a food self-sufficiency policy is clearly failing. The estimated domestic
cereal supply of 78,100 tonnes for the 2003/2004 marketing year falls short of the total
national consumption requirement that stood at 205,800 tonnes, resulting in an import
requirement of 127,700 tonnes. Commercial imports are estimated at 103,400 tonnes and
food aid at 24,300 tonnes. Against this requirement, current government allocations, World
Food Programme (WFP) stocks and anticipated relief stock amounted to 15,300 tonnes,
still leaving a deficit of 9,000 tonnes to be covered by additional food aid contributions
(MOAC-NEWU, 2004).

The production problem is complicated by the high skewedness of the income distribution
pattern which puts 43% of the national product in the pockets of a mere 10% of the

Table 7.4. Estimated maize production (tonnes) in comparison to the 1997/1998-2002/2003 by agro-
ecological zone (MOAC; NEWU, 2003).

Agro-ecological
zone

1997/98
(tonnes)

1998/99
(tonnes)

1999/00
(tonnes)

2000/01
(tonnes)

2001/02
(tonnes)

2002/03
(tonnes)

5 years
average
(tonnes)

Percentage
average
(%)

Highveld 44,741 45,486 38,721 33,493 31,404 36,063 38,769 93

Middleveld 50,661 39,939 43,514 28,995 23,921 22,091 37,406 59

Lowveld 24,562 17,358 27,627 16,860 7,223 7,185 18,726 38

Lubombo Plateau 5,240 4,557 2,917 3,187 2,436 3,762 3,667 103

Swaziland 125,204 107,340 112,779 82,535 64,984 62,101 98,568 70