Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
would be quite unwilling to trade their newfound democracy, free-
dom, and prosperity for any form of mainland-style authoritarian
government that might take harsh moves to improve social stability.
An invasion of Taiwan by the Chinese mainland would post an enor-
mous quandary to the United States, which heartily approves of
Taiwan's recent democratization and prosperity and yet greatly
desires harmonious diplomatic relations with China, the world's most
populous state and potentially America's largest market. The U.S.
Seventh Fleet is stationed in Japan, and the question for the Americans
would be whether to intervene.
Over the past decade and a half there has emerged in topics on
China's growing military might a consensus that of all the irritants in
relations between China and the United States, only the Taiwan ques-
tion could lead to war between the two giant countries. One such topic,
published in 2007, is AWar Like No Other: The Truth About China's Chal-
lenge to America, by Richard C. Bush, who has been involved in Taiwan
and mainland China issues for two decades in the U.S. government
and is now a scholar at the Brookings Institution, and Michael E.
O'Hanlon, a national security expert at the Brookings Institution. Bush
and O'Hanlon warn repeatedly that conflict between mainland China
and Taiwan could go careening out of control, especially if the United
States becomes involved in it, and lead very quickly to a direct military
confrontation between two nuclear states.
War between China and Taiwan is a distinct possibility. Such a war
could easily drag in the United States, pitting the world's only super-
power against its main rising power and thus leading to the first serious
conflict in history between nuclear weapons states.
It seems inconceivable, in this day and age, that the United States and
China could really wind up in a war. Their mutual interests in cooperat-
ing are so strong, their economies are so intertwined, the dangers of war
are so enormous, and the number of other problems for them to worry
about is so great that it would seem the height of foolishness for the
two huge powers ever to come to blows.
There is much truth to this. Indeed, as we have argued in chapter three,
most of the reasons why China and the United States could theoretically
fight do not in the end hold water. But the Taiwan problem is different
...
the way that a China-Taiwan crisis could begin and escalate would hold
the inherent potential for escalation to direct superpower war. (Bush and
O'Hanlon, 99)
Avoiding such a war is in the interests of Taiwan, mainland China, and
the United States. But if a war starts, it will because mainland China
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