Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
momentum of history. Since its first unification under the Qin in 221
B.C., China has placed an enormous premium on national unity. At
the end of the twentieth century, Hong Kong and Macao returned to
Chinese sovereignty, and Taiwan is now the last piece of historically
Chinese territory left for the People's Republic to recover. As much
as the government of the People's Republic of China would like to, it
cannot proclaim at the end of the first decade of the twenty-first
century that its great enterprise of achieving complete national unity
is accomplished. Much to its frustration, the mainland government
cannot even point to a timetable for an orderly transition to national
unification; that remains an elusive goal. Taiwan's continuing
independence from the People's Republic is a painful thorn in the side
for all mainland Chinese patriots. The mainland will not let Taiwan
go without a tooth-and-nail fight, and it seems that if the people of
Taiwan truly desire independence from the mainland, they must
admit that they are in fact cutting off their historical ties with mainland
China and then prepare themselves for a very long and disruptive
battle with mainland invaders. They must neither underestimate the
determination and military ability of the People's Republic to resist
their moves toward independence nor naively expect the United
States or other countries to rush to their rescue in their hour of need.
The United States might elect to stay out of the fight and wait to see
what comes of it. U.S. intervention in a battle across the Taiwan Strait
could very well lead to a larger war between China and the United
States, which would mean tremendous losses for both sides, but espe-
cially for China. China's economic development would be ruined and
set back 30 years or more, and mass starvation would likely break out
in China after the disruption of its transportation and communication
infrastructure. The United States would probably prevail in any armed
conflict with China not involving a ground war, but the cost in blood
and treasure for such a victory might ultimately prove higher than
the American public is willing to tolerate.
Mainland China, for its part, badly overestimates Taiwan's desires
for reunification with the motherland. In Taiwan today a majority of
the population would favor formalizing independence for their island
if it could be achieved without provoking an armed attack from the
mainland. Taiwan today has good reason for not being enthusiastic
about unification with the mainland in the near future. Already in
the 1990s, Taiwan was light-years ahead of the mainland in terms of
prosperity, democracy, respect for human rights, and freedom of
expression. The island does struggle with some measure of corruption
and organized crime, but the overwhelming majority of its people
