Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
subsequently plant breeding programs for these systems have been largely
neglected.
11.3 CURRENT WORLD SITUATION
11.3.1 POPULATION
The current population is quickly approaching seven billion people world-
wide and is projected to reach between 8.7-10 billion people by the year
2050, an increase of 45% [5,14,15] (notice that the term 'billion' is used
in the sense of the short scale system throughout the text: 1 billion = 10 9 ).
The rate of population growth varies around the world, however the great-
est increase in population growth is expected to occur in developing and
poverty-stricken countries concentrated in Africa [16]. Currently, the global
population is increasing at 1.1% per year [4], and although there has been a
deceleration over the past few decades, the overall growth in population has
been positive. This population increase, which has been continuous since
the Bubonic Plaque (1338-1351), will result in greater demand for food
and agricultural commodities, while land and resources available for crop
production will be on the decline. Accommodating the growing demand for
food will undoubtedly be difficult, the UN Food and Agricultural Organiza-
tion [17] projects that crops/livestock demand will rise 40% by 2030, reach-
ing 70% by 2050. More specifically, the increased demand for cereal grains
(human and livestock feed) will require production to increase from the cur-
rent annual production of 2.1 billion tons to 3 billion tons by 2050. The de-
mand for animal protein products will be even greater. Production will need
to increase 200 million tons by 2050 to meet the projected 470 million ton
demand [5]. In order to meet this demand, agricultural production will have
to be as efficient as possible, especially in low-yielding agroecosystems.
The potential for the human population to exceed resource availability, and
therefore the carrying capacity of the environment is realistic. With proper
and efficient breeding technologies that address low-input conditions, vari-
eties that are geared toward limited or stressed agroecosystems could allevi-
ate the production pressures associated with population increases.
 
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