Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
7.5 CONCLUSIONS
This study is a fundamental research for establishing the agricultural ener-
gy demand forecasting model. The simulation results demonstrate that the
methodology used in this study is proper and accurate. The conclusions
and the relevant policy recommendations are summarized as follows:
• For agriculture in China, farming and transportation are the two largest die-
sel consumers, accounting for 86.23% of the total diesel consumption in
agriculture in 2010, while the other sectors account for a negligible share.
Differing from the farming in this respect, more attention should be paid
to the fast growth of the diesel consumption in the transportation in the
forecasting model.
• Technological progress positively affected unit diesel consumption and the
unit productivity of all machinery from 1996 to 2010. However, there is
great potential in reducing unit diesel consumption and increasing unit pro-
ductivity. The Chinese government should continue to promote technologi-
cal progress and to improve in the field of mechanized agriculture.
• With the development of the agricultural economy, most of the agricultural
machinery becomes larger and larger in size, more diesel fuel efficient and
productive. However, irrigation machinery has proved to be an exception.
Diesel consumption in mechanized agriculture can be reduced by prevent-
ing the miniaturization trend of irrigation machinery and raising the propor-
tion of the medium-sized and large-scale agricultural machinery.
• The annual average working hours of the agricultural machinery (except
harvesters) continue to decline from 1996 to 2010. Subsidies policy for
purchasing agricultural machines upon 2004 leads to the massive growth
of the agricultural machinery at the expense of the waste of the partial pro-
duction capacity. This means that machinery sits idle in the yard for most
of the time. Although this may not directly affect diesel fuel consumption,
it directs resources to the manufacturing of agricultural machinery and in-
creases the cost of the agricultural production.
• The annual average working hours of the agricultural machinery powered
by diesel are about 40-120 h which is much fewer than that of agricultural
machinery powered by electricity (i.e., 500-600 h). With an adequate pow-
er supply and feasible techniques, it is effective to save energy and improve
utilization by replacing diesel machinery with electricity machinery.
REFERENCES
1.
Dincer, I.; Hussain, M.; Al-Zaharnah, I. Energy and exergy utilization in agricultural
sector of Saudi Arabia. Energy Policy 2005, 33, 1461-1467.
