Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
agriculture, especially in China. In the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the Chi-
nese government has planned to reduce the energy consumption per unit
GDP by 16% during this fi ve year horizon. A special model, Simulation
and Analysis of Energy Consumption for Agriculture (SECA), is designed
to answer all kinds of questions on how energy was consumed in different
agricultural sectors to achieve the new goal. Furthermore it also serves
as the foundation for the agricultural energy demand forecasting model.
In this study, we identify the factors (total power, unit diesel consump-
tion, etc.) infl uencing diesel consumption in China and simulate the diesel
fl ows of agriculture of China in detail. Based on availability, our dataset
spans the period of 1996-2010.
7.2 MODEL SPECIFICATION AND DATA
7.2.1 OVERALL STRUCTURE
This paper uses a generalized definition of the word agriculture to include
farming (i.e., agriculture in narrow definition), fishery, forestry, animal
husbandry and services supporting agriculture. Fifteen kinds of the ag-
ricultural machinery from seven agricultural subsectors are considered.
Figure 1 shows the overall structure of SECA. In the Distribution Module,
it is assumed that the change in the number of agricultural machinery with
different rated powers follows a certain curved distribution. Simulation re-
sults of the curved distribution are processed by the Operation Module and
transferred into the Unit Consumption Module and the Productivity Mod-
ule which generate the weighted average of unit consumption and that of
unit productivity, respectively. Then the two weighted averages are input
into the Main Module along with workload statistics, machinery capacity
and load factors, which are obtained from the database in the Operation
Module. Finally, technological progress and other effects are considered
in the Correction Module to narrow the gap between the empirical statis-
tics and the model calculations. The following subsections describe each
module in detail.
