Ecotourism, Local Economy, and Ecological Strategies in Planning Nature Reserves in Panama - Restorative Redevelopment of Devastated Ecocultural Landscapes - page 288

facilities within the marshes themselves compared to along the dryland edge of the
marshes in terms of revenue generation for the local populations and the like?
The ecological results and the economic results can be combined in graphical
format to create a matrix of easily comprehendible possible alternatives for eco-
tourism planning (Karish and Faris 2004). An extreme example is the “Leave it
to the wolves scenario,” which leads to an ecological disaster. This is the highest
build-out scenario with high economic returns, and it performs very poorly in
ecological terms. One would, of course, have to question whether such an alter-
native is really sustainable in the long run. On the other extreme is the scenario
based on preserving the island completely free of tourists for the benefits of con-
servation and science. Of course, such a strategy is going to perform the best in
ecological terms, but one has to seriously question whether there will be adequate
political and financial support in order to sustain such an exclusionary approach.
In this light, just how much of the future restored Iraqi marshes should be pre-
served as an ecological “Eden” versus how much should be kept as a working
landscape that is welcoming to tourists?
The most realistic development pathways for Coiba will almost certainly lie
somewhere between these two extremes, recognizing that there will always be
trade-offs between economic and ecological outcomes. Although this might just
appear to be common sense (and of course it is), the methodology described here is
most useful in being able to quantify that balance and to provide warnings as the
tipping point is approached (Karish and Faris 2004). It is important to recognize
that what one can gain from examining such alternative futures graphs is not what
the right solution is. The right solution depends, of course, on values in terms of
how society balances ecological versus economic outcomes, and the only way that
this can really be settled is through the political process. What can be ascertained
from analyzing the graphical outputs from alternative futures modeling exercises
is what the really bad ideas are that should be avoided at all costs (Karish and Faris
2004). It is, therefore, an approach that is very useful in early planning strategizing
through helping to immediately screen out the most unlikely development path-
ways from future consideration (see chapter 4). And as an outside research group,
this is where the consultants should back off and leave the nuanced decision mak-
ing to the locals.
What Karish and Faris (2004) wanted to do in the Coiba project was to create a
useful public policy tool and to foster a better informed dialogue about the future of
the valuable area. At the time of their study, there were a few different versions of
legislation being considered by the government for the national park. The first version
of the law would have severely restricted any development on the island, and this was
subsequently vetoed by the president. Two further versions were introduced. Another
version was a terrible piece of legislation which thankfully was turned down in favor
of what is presently a very sensible piece of legislation. And it was this particular
alternative futures study, marrying predictions of development with economic and
ecologic benefits, that was influential in helping governmental officials to reach that
sane decision of moving toward a balanced and thus sustainable tourism plan for
the nature reserve. And it is through such a process that those concerned with the