Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
traditional tourism development (hotels, commercialism, restaurants, social inequi-
ties, crime, etc.) that are also attracted to these special areas for the very same rea-
sons (see chapter 14, for example, for a discussion about the floating marsh villages
in Lake Titicaca). It will become essential, therefore, to find ways to achieve some
sort of balance between tourism development and environmental conservation.
ALTERNATIVE FUTURES MODELS IN LAND USE PLANNING
Gaps often exist in the production of scientific information and the delivery of those
insights in a useful form for people to act upon (France 2006). Furthermore, for
tourism planning there is a need to develop place-based relationships between envi-
ronmental policy and implementation among ecological, social, and economic aspi-
rations, and in a form that not only supports but also actually encourages objective
discussion about what the future might look like on the ground.
One approach that is receiving increased interest among land use planners, par-
ticularly those dealing with large-scale, highly contentious water-driven issues,
is alternative futures scenario modeling (France 2006; see also chapter 4). This
technique enables predicting impacts of land use alterations (such as tourism devel-
opment) on ecological processes, integrating human dimensions into effective plan-
ning, and developing an understanding of the uncertainty of impacts and associated
risks of various development scenarios (e.g., Hulse et al. 2000; Van Sickle et al.
2004). And, most importantly, the alternative futures approach provides a frame-
work to effectively incorporate science into the community-based decision-making
process (France 2006). Major components (Hulse, Branscomb, and Payne 2004)
include the following:
•
Characterization of the trajectory of landscape changes and formulating
these as a series of defined alternative future scenario assumptions
•
Development of spatially explicit alternative future landscapes through
models that reflect varying assumptions about land and water use and the
range of stakeholder viewpoints
•
Modeling and evaluating the likely effects of the landscape trajectory and alter-
native futures on key and valued ecological and socioeconomic end points
•
Characterizing and synthesizing the differences among the alternatives
The alternative futures approach has its roots in build-out analyses that have been
used for decades by land use planners as a tool to predict future development patterns
and their effects. The build-out methodology is directed toward promoting sound land
management decisions by providing growth projections, assessing the impacts of exist-
ing growth, and encouraging actions to reduce the impacts of growth (France 2006).
CASE STUDY: COIBA, PANAMA
One of the limitations facing any land use planning process is recognizing the dif-
ficulty or perhaps impossibility of coming up with perfect plans or perfect public
policy choices. Nevertheless, due to the rarity of these types of studies, Kimberley
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