Encephalitis - Dynamic Modeling of Diseases and Pests - page 83

Table 5.1

Year Infected

1964 44

1965 1

1968 23

1974 6

1975 581

1976 14

1977 13

1980 5

1982 2

1983 2

1988 1

1993 2

1: infected annually

1: 800

1: 400

1

1 1 1

1: 0

1.00 2921.00 5841.00 8761.00 11681.00

Days

Fig. 5.7

In another report 7 an attack rate of 15.2 per 100,000 and case fatality of 9.7% is
revealed. We adjusted the Monath human death rate factor (with a single coefficient)
to get the death rate at about 10 percent of the death rate.
From Figure 5.7, we can see that the human infection rate was high in the first
cycle of the two years of results even though the breeding potential for mosquitoes
was equally high in both years. This difference in human impact is due to the large
number of immunes in the population by the second summer of the model run
(Figure 5.8). Note in Figure 5.8 that the bulk of the time for standing water does

7 Hopkins, C.C., F.B. Hollinger, R.F. Johnson, H.J. Dewlett, V.F. Newhouse, and R.W.
Chamberlain. 1975. The Epidemiology of St. Louis Encephalitis in Dallas, Texas, 1966. American
Journal of Epidemiology 102: 1-15.