Database Reference
In-Depth Information
Chapter 1
The Why and How of Dynamic Modeling
1.1 Introduction
Few tasks are nobler than those that improve the length and quality of life of humans
and their fellow species. And few tasks are more difficult to accomplish. To be suc-
cessful, we must assess the vulnerabilities of individuals to attacks on their health
and well-being, we must understand the interactions of individuals with each other
and their environment, and we must anticipate the likely consequences of all these
factors in an ever-changing world—individual vulnerabilities change, new diseases
and pests emerge, old ones reappear, new means are developed to detect and com-
bat adverse influences on health and well-being, and new standards for health and
quality of life are applied.
There are many drivers behind the spread of diseases and pests. Climate change
may create new temperature and precipitation regimes conducive to diseases and
pests that would otherwise be irrelevant for particular locations. West Nile fever,
malaria and encephalitis, for example, are increasingly of concern to public health
officials. Other drivers are related to our use of technology in a globalizing world.
For example, ballast water used in ships can carry with it organisms and spread
them to ever more far-flung places. Increased travel of people around the globe can
promote dispersal of viruses, bacteria, fungi, and other “agents” that affect the health
and well-being of species and ecosystems.
Strategies for controlling the spread of diseases and pests, and especially chang-
ing the root causes for a spread to occur, have created a multi-billion-dollar industry
involving the full gamut of societal defenses—from detection and monitoring, to
chemical and pharmaceutical products, to medical care, to ecosystem design and
restoration. Sound knowledge of the dynamics of diseases and pests and an un-
derstanding of the changing roles and relationships among the drivers and the
constraints on their spread are needed to make wise choices among the various in-
tervention options.
This topic provides an introduction to dynamic modeling of diseases and pests—
the various forms of insult to the health and well-being of species, both human and
