Database Reference
In-Depth Information
4.1.2 Questions and Tasks
1. How would the behavior of the model change if we include resistance of the
vectors against repellents and insecticides?
2. How can we include the influence of socioeconomic factors into the formula,
such as increased education about causes and transmission of malaria, and in-
duced behavioral changes, or improved health care (such as expanded availability
of drugs)?
3. How would the spread of the disease be affected by a global climatic change?
4. How may rains affect the spread of the disease?
BASIC MALARIA MODEL
Human Population
IMMUNE POP(t)
=
IMMUNE POP(t
−
dt)
+
(RECOVERING
−
DR IMMUNE
LOSING IMMUNITY) * dt
INIT IMMUNE POP
−
=
0
INFLOWS:
RECOVERING
=
RECOVERY RATE*INFECTED POP
OUTFLOWS:
DR IMMUNE
IMMUNE POP*NAT DR
LOSING IMMUNITY
=
=
IMMUNITY LOSS * IMMUNE POP
INFECTED POP(t)
=
INFECTED POP(t
−
dt)
+
(INFECTING HUM
−
RECOVERING
DR IN) * dt
INIT INFECTED POP
−
=
377000
INFLOWS:
INFECTING HUM
=
TRANSM RATE*UNINFECTED POP *
INFECTED POP
OUTFLOWS:
RECOVERING
=
RECOVERY RATE * INFECTED POP
DR IN
INFECTED POP * INFECTED DR
POP1530(t)
=
=
POP1530(t
−
dt)
INIT POP1530
=
8676000
UNINFECTED POP(t)
=
UNINFECTED POP(t
−
dt)
+
(LOSING IMMUNITY
+
BIRTHING
−
DR UN
−
INFECTING HUM) * dt
INIT UNINFECTED POP
=
23706000
INFLOWS:
LOSING IMMUNITY
=
IMMUNITY LOSS * IMMUNE POP
BIRTHING
=
POP1530 * BR
OUTFLOWS:
DR UN
UNINFECTED POP * NAT DR
INFECTING HUM
=
=
TRANSM RATE*UNINFECTED POP *
INFECTED POP
BR
=
0.021
