Database Reference
In-Depth Information
NONIMMUNE(t)
=
NONIMMUNE(t
dt)
+
(BIRTHS
+
IMMUNE LOSS
CONTRACTION
NONIMMUNE DEATH
VACCINE) * dt
INIT NONIMMUNE
=
1000000
{
People
}
INFLOWS:
BIRTHS
=
POPULATION * BIRTH RATE/52
{
People per Week
}
IMMUNE LOSS
=
.015 * IMMUNE
{
People per Week
}
OUTFLOWS:
CONTRACTION
=
BETA * ((CONTAGIOUS
UNAWARE CONTAGIOUS) * 3/5
+
UNAWARE CONTAGIOUS
+
SICK/2) * NONIMMUNE
{
People per Week
}
NONIMMUNE DEATH
=
NAT DEATH RATE/52 * NONIMMUNE
{
People
per Week
}
VACCINE
=
NONIMMUNE * (1
CONTRACTION)
{
People per Week
}
SICK(t)
=
SICK(t
dt)
+
(BED RATE
RECOVERY RATE
SICK DEATH) * dt
INIT SICK
=
0
{
People
}
INFLOWS:
BED RATE
=
CONTAGIOUS-CONTAGIOUS DEATH
{
People per Week
}
OUTFLOWS:
RECOVERY RATE
=
0.9 * SICK
{
People per Week
}
SICK DEATH
=
(.1 * SICK)
+
(NAT DEATH RATE/52 * SICK)
{
People per
Week
}
BETA
=
0.000002
{ +
SINWAVE(0.0000005,52 )
}
POPULATION
=
NONIMMUNE
+
CONTAGIOUS
+
IMMUNE
+
SICK
{
}
UNAWARE CONTAGIOUS
People
=
CONTAGIOUS/3
{
A third of the contagious
persons are unaware of being contagious; People
}
BIRTH RATE
GRAPH(POPULATION)
(0.00, 0.00), (166667, 0.0115), (333333, 0.023), (500000, 0.0325), (666667,
0.041), (833333, 0.0525), (1000000, 0.061), (1.2e
=
+
06, 0.0705), (1.3e
+
06,
0.076), (1.5e
+
06, 0.076), (1.7e
+
06, 0.0735), (1.8e
+
06, 0.066), (2e
+
06,
0.045)
NAT DEATH RATE
GRAPH(POPULATION)
(0.00, 0.0005), (208333, 0.005), (416667, 0.0102), (625000, 0.0153), (833333,
0.0204), (1e
=
+
06, 0.0249), (1.2e
+
06, 0.0294), (1.5e
+
06, 0.033), (1.7e
+
06,
0.0363), (1.9e
+
06, 0.0387), (2.1e
+
06, 0.0411), (2.3e
+
06, 0.0426), (2.5e
+
06, 0.0432)
2.6 Questions and Tasks
1. Try running the models of Sections 2.1 and 2.2 with different time steps and
explain why the results differ.
 
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