Database Reference
In-Depth Information
1: MOSQ % INFECTED
2: BIRD % INFECTED
3: SEROPREVALENCE
1:
0.02
3
0
2:
1
3:
3
1
1:
0.01
2
2:
0
1
1
3:
0
1
1:
0
3
2:
0
2
0
0.00
2
3
2
3:
91.25
182.50
273.75
365.00
Days
Fig. 12.7
3. What field data would help with estimating the rate of trans-ovarial transmission
of WNV in mosquitoes? (Hint: Which sex does not bite?)
WNV BASE MODEL (DERIVED FROM)
(6)
BIRD INFECT(t)
=
BIRD INFECT(t
−
dt)
+
(BIRD INFECTING
−
Bird I to R
BI DYING WNV) * dt
INIT BIRD INFECT
−
=
0
INFLOWS:
BIRD INFECTING
BITE RATE*TRANSMISSION EFFICACY M TO B*
BIRD SUSC/TOTAL BIRD POPULATION * MOSQ INFECT
OUTFLOWS:
Bird I to R
=
BIRD INFECT * BIRD RECOVERY RATE
BI DYING WNV
=
=
BIRD INFECT * WNV DEATH RATE
BIRD RECOV(t)
=
BIRD RECOV(t
−
dt)
+
(Bird I to R
−
IMMUNITY LOSING) * dt
INIT BIRD RECOV
=
0
INFLOWS:
Bird I to R
=
BIRD INFECT * BIRD RECOVERY RATE
OUTFLOWS:
IMMUNITY LOSING
=
BIRD RECOV * IMMUNITY LOSS RATE
BIRD SUSC(t)
=
BIRD SUSC(t - dt)
+
(IMMUNITY LOSING
−
BIRD INFECTING) * dt
INIT BIRD SUSC
=
1000
INFLOWS:
IMMUNITY LOSING
=
BIRD RECOV * IMMUNITY LOSS RATE
