Biological Control of Pestilence - Dynamic Modeling of Diseases and Pests - page 191

Third to Adult = Larva 3 * (1/(72 * (10.0 + 50*(EXP( − 0.25 *

(Hourly Temp − 4))))))

Larva 3 Death = Larva 3*Rate2 \ 3

Reproductive Adults(t) = Reproductive Adults(t − dt) + (Maturation −

Adult Death) * dt
INIT Reproductive Adults = 0

TRANSIT TIME = 240

INFLOW LIMIT = ∞

CAPACITY = ∞

INFLOWS:
Maturation = CONVEYOR OUTFLOW

OUTFLOWS:
Adult Death CONVEYOR OUTFLOW

Sucker Adder(t)

=

= Sucker Adder(t − dt) + (Suckers In − Adder Out −

Damage to Trees) * dt
INIT Sucker Adder = 10000

INFLOWS:
Suckers In = (Total Suckers − DELAY(Total Suckers, DT))

OUTFLOWS:
Adder Out 50000) THEN (50000 *

(INT(Sucker Adder / 50000))) ELSE 0
Damage to Trees

= IF (Sucker Adder > =

= IF (Sucker Adder > = 50000) THEN (INT(Sucker Adder /

50000)) ELSE 0
Sum of Damage(t) = Sum of Damage(t − dt) + (Damage to Trees) * dt

INIT Sum of Damage = 0

INFLOWS:
Damage to Trees

= IF (Sucker Adder > = 50000) THEN (INT(Sucker Adder /

50000)) ELSE 0
Uninfected Fraser Fir(t) = Uninfected Fraser Fir(t − dt) + ( − Infection) * dt

INIT Uninfected Fraser Fir = 19

OUTFLOWS:
Infection = IF (INT(Change in Damage > 0)) AND (Uninfected Fraser Fir > 0)

THEN (1) ELSE 0
Change in Damage = (Sum of Damage − DELAY(Sum of Damage, DT))

Hourly Temp =

(Monthly Temp Amplitude * SIN(2 * PI * TIME/24)) +

Monthly Temp Baseline
Pesticide

= IF (Day Accumulation = 80) THEN (Larva 1 * .11) ELSE 0

Rate 1 = IF Hourly Temp < = 4 THEN 0.0003 ELSE 0.0001

Rate 2 \ 3 = IF Hourly Temp < = 4 THEN 1/72 ELSE 0.0001

Total Suckers = Adult + Larva 1 + Larva 2 + Larva 3 + Reproductive Adults

Monthly Temp Amplitude = GRAPH(Day Accumulation)