Database Reference
In-Depth Information
dangerous for pregnant women and their unborn children. Pregnant women are
likely to be in the same age bracket as the average age of first infection under the
three more aggressive immunization policies shown as lines 2, 3, and 4 in Figure 8.7.
Even with a less aggressive immunization policy, the average age at which individ-
uals contract the disease is still high enough to cause a health risk to individuals.
Therefore, the establishment of a vaccination policy for chicken pox must be given
careful consideration.
8.2 Questions and Tasks
1. Explore the effects of different Beta Weights on model results. Choose larger
weights for younger age cohorts.
2. Explore the effects of different vaccination rates on model results.
a. Choose the same vaccination rate for the entire population.
b. Choose different vaccination rate for different age cohorts.
3. Assume an increasing total population and determine the effects of the dynamics
of chicken pox, especially the average age of first infections.
CHICKEN POX AND SHINGLES
After Shingles(t)
=
After Shingles(t
−
dt)
+
(S Recover
−
Death After Shingles) * dt
INIT After Shingles
=
0
INFLOWS:
S Recover
=
Shingles/S Rec Time
{
people per day
}
OUTFLOWS:
Death After Shingles
=
After Shingles*Death Rate
Age 0 to 9(t)
=
Age 0 to 9(t
−
dt)
+
(Births - Aging 1
−
Transmission1
−
Immunization
−
Deaths 1) * dt
INIT Age 0 to 9
=
20710
{
people
}
INFLOWS:
Births
=
Birth Rate*Reproductive Pop
{
births per day
}
OUTFLOWS:
Aging 1
=
Age 0 to 9/Aging Time
{
people per day
}
Transmission1
=
(Beta Weight 0 9*Beta)*Age 0 to 9*Total Infective
{
people exposed per day
}
Immunization
=
Age 0 to 9*Immunization Rate
{
people per population per
day
}
Deaths 1
=
Age 0 to 9*Death Rate
{
deaths per day
}
Age 10 to 19(t)
=
Age 10 to 19(t
−
dt)
+
(Aging 1
−
Transmission 2
−
Aging2
Deaths 2) * dt
INIT Age 10 to 19
−
=
3961
{
people
}
