Chagas Disease - Dynamic Modeling of Diseases and Pests - page 104

1: DYING D

20000

1:

10000

1:

1

1 1 1

0

1:

0 75.00 150.00 225.00 300.00

Years

Fig. 6.11

3. How would the number of people living in the household affect the transmission
of Chagas disease?
4. If temperature and relative humidity were factored into the model, would there
be a significant effect in transmission?

CHAGAS DISEASE

HUMAN POPULATION
INF HU(t) = INF HU(t − dt) + (W INF + INFECTING − RECOVERING −

DYING D) * dt
INIT INF HU

= 12931983

INFLOWS:
W INF

New borns*CON INF R
INFECTING

=

= SUS*HU INF R*LAG

OUTFLOWS:
RECOVERING = REC RATE*INF HU

DYING D = CFR*INF HU

New borns(t) = New borns(t − dt) + (BIRTHING − W INF − WO INF) * dt

INIT New borns = 0

INFLOWS:
BIRTHING = REP POP*BR

OUTFLOWS:
W INF = New borns*CON INF R

WO INF = New borns*(1-CON INF R)

SUS(t) = SUS(t − dt) + (WO INF + RECOVERING − INFECTING −

DYING N) * dt