Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
economy more directly dependent on cars, trucks, and airplanes. Companies will likely try to offset
rising oil costs by cutting other expenses—reducing salaries and laying off workers. Economists
will observe that demand for products of all kinds is falling and blame the resulting economic con-
traction on demographic trends, financial bubbles, deregulation, or too much regulation—anything
but unaffordable oil.
We got a taste of exactly that scenario in 2008. As oil prices soared, the global financial system
crumbled for apparently unrelated reasons. Trade levels plunged. Governments and central banks
leapt to the rescue, boosting overall demand with deficit spending while keeping interest rates low
via quantitative easing. Economic inequality increased alarmingly, but crisis was kept at bay. It's
not clear how long these strategies will maintain a semblance of normalcy, as oil depletion contin-
ues inexorably to undermine the energetic basis of our global economy.
Meanwhile, climate change could nudge localization into overdrive. Imagine the following se-
quence of events in a not-too-distant year: During summer, severe drought hammers the Midwest;
then, in early autumn, a massive hurricane devastates areas of the Gulf coast. As winter descends,
epic rains flood California's Central Valley and coastal cities, rendering a million people stranded
and homeless. A Republican-dominated Congress, suffering from disaster fatigue and reluctant to
run up the Federal deficit, refuses to approve relief money for California. The takeaway message:
continent-spanning supply chains are a terrific investment during boom years, but if and when
maintenance costs mount . . .you're on your own.
For “doomers” and “preppers” who lie awake at night worrying about climate change and re-
source depletion, the failure of complex national and global provisioning systems amounts to noth-
ing but collapse and calamity. But other futurists tell a happier predictive story about localization,
and it begins with renewable energy.
Solar and wind may not be able to replicate all the payoffs of fossil fuels—which are concen-
trated, available on demand, and ideal for fueling centralized grid systems and vehicles of all kinds.
But what if society were to play to the strengths of these new energy sources rather than trying to
force-fit them into systems designed for oil, coal, and gas? The result would likely be an energy
economy that is distributed, decentralized, and under local control.
The trend may already be quietly beginning: because conventional utilities have a hard time ac-
commodating high levels of intermittent input, some are starting to penalize grid-tied rooftop solar
homes. For solar homeowners, a way to avoid these financial disincentives is to go off-grid. While
the required initial investment is high, renewable generating systems are cheap to run because there
is no fuel cost. If off-gridding were to become widespread, the ultimate outcome would be much
lower overall energy consumption levels within a national energy system that is highly diverse, loc-
alized, and even anarchic by present standards, with electricity use primarily occurring when inter-
mittent energy is available.
Another technological development possibly leading to a happy local future is 3-D printing.
Jet printers that spray particles of metal or plastic resin instead of ink, piling up layers to produce
a useful object, are still relatively uncommon. But printers are evolving quickly and their price is
plummeting. As applications of the technology expand, more products will be manufactured at their
point of purchase or use. While per-unit production costs may be higher, reduced shipping and in-
ventory expenditures will more than compensate. Supply chains of raw materials—from mines to
printers—would be needed, and some environmentalists have legitimate concerns about the waste
and toxics produced by these machines; still, studies suggest that overall materials and energy con-
