Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
MANY OF THE READERS OF MY WRITINGS
,
AND THOSE OF MY
colleagues, have come to share
a certain view of the world. It's probably fair to say that, as a group, we see resource deple-
tion, financial chaos, and environmental disasters (principally associated with global climate
change) as looming storms converging on industrial civilization. We also tend to see the unpreced-
ented level of complexity of our society today as resulting from the historically recent energy sub-
sidies of fossil fuels, and to a certain extent the enabling factor of debt in various forms. Thus, as the
quality and quantity of our energy sources inevitably decline and financial claims melt away with
the ongoing burst of history's greatest credit bubble, we see a simplification and decentralization of
societal systems as inevitable.
In this essay, I hope to explore some of the broader social implications of simplification and
decentralization. Will wars and revolutions break out with ever-greater frequency? Will democracy
thrive, or will traumatized masses find themselves at the mercy of tyrants? Will nation states sur-
vive, or will they break apart? Will regional warlords rule over impoverished and enslaved surviv-
ors? Or will local food networks and Transition groups positively transform society from the ground
up?
I don't claim to have a functioning crystal ball. But tracing current trends and looking to historic
analogies may help us understand our prospects better, and help us make the most of them.
The 21st Century Landscape of Conflict
Looking forward, four principal drivers of conflict are easily apparent. More may be lurking along
the way.
First is the increasing prospect of
conflict between rich and poor
—i.e., between those who be-
nefitted during history's biggest growth bash and those who provided the labor, sat on the sidelines,
or were pushed aside in resource grabs.
Economic growth produces inequality as a by-product. Not only do industrialists appropriate
the surplus value of the labor of their workers, as Marx pointed out, but lenders accumulate wealth
from the interest paid by borrowers. We see inequality being generated by economic growth in real
time in China, where roughly six hundred million people have been lifted from poverty in the last
