Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
onmental limits again and again. Dark-age people haven't skirted the Maximum Power Principle;
they've just learned (from necessity) to pursue it with more modest strategies.
Needless to say, dark ages have their (ahem) dark side. In the early phases of such periods large
numbers of people typically die from famine and war or other forms of violence. Dark ages are
times of forgetting, when technological and cultural achievements are often lost. Writing, money,
mathematics, and astronomy can all disappear.
Still, these times are not uniformly gloomy. During the European Dark Ages, slavery nearly dis-
appeared as new farming methods and better breeds of horses and oxen made forced human labor
less economic. People who previously would have been bound in slavery became either free work-
ers or, at worst, serfs. The latter couldn't pick up and move without their lord's permission, but
generally enjoyed far more latitude than slaves. At the same time, the rise of Christianity brought
new organized charitable activities and institutions, including hospices, hospitals, and shelters for
the poor.
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Today nearly everyone in the industrialized world has adopted boom-time behavior. We are
encouraged to do so by ceaseless advertising messages and by governmental cheerleaders of the
growth economy. After all, we have just lived through the biggest boom in all human history—why
not expect more of the same? The only significant slap-downs in recent cultural memory were the
Great Depression and a couple of world wars: compared to ecological bottlenecks in ancient eras
these were minor affairs; further, they were relatively brief and played out three or more generations
ago. For most of us now, dark-age behavior seems quaint, pointless, and pessimistic.
It would be perverse to wish for a Great Slap-Down. Only a sociopath would welcome massive,
widespread human suffering. At the same time, it is impossible to ignore these twin facts: our spe-
cies' population-consumption fiesta is killing the planet, and we're not likely to end the party vol-
untarily.
Will we avert or face a Great Slap-Down? We're already seeing initial signs of trouble ahead
in extreme weather events, high oil and food prices, and increasing geopolitical tensions. Sadly, it
seems that every effort will be made to keep the party going as long as possible. Even amid un-
mistakable signs of economic contraction, most people will still require time to adapt behaviorally.
Moreover, a slap-down likely won't be sudden and complete, but may unfold in stages. After each
mini-slap we'll hear claims from boom-time diehards that techno-utopian takeoff has merely been
delayed and economic expansion will soon resume, if only we follow this or that leader or political
program.
But if urban centers feel the crunch and widespread techno-utopian expectations are dashed, we
can expect to see evidence of profound psychological disruption. Gradually, more and more people
will conclude—again, as a result of hard experience—that nature
isn't
here just for us. Whether
this realization emerges from extreme weather, plagues, or resource scarcity, it will lead an ever-ex-
panding share of the populace grudgingly to pay more attention to forces beyond human control.
Just as humans are now shaping the future of Earth, Earth will shape the future of humanity.
Amid rapid environmental and social change, the message of the Lean-Greens will gain more obvi-
ous relevance. That message may not save the polar bears (though ecosystem protection programs
deserve every kind of support), but it might make the inevitable transition to a new species-wide be-
havioral mode a lot easier. It may lead to a dark age that's less dark than it would otherwise be, one
in which more of our cultural and scientific achievements are preserved. A great deal may depend
on the intensity and success of the efforts of the small proportion of the population who are cur-
