Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
The petroleum industry has undergone a profound shift in the past decade. Levels of investment
in exploration and production have doubled, as have rates of drilling, but output has risen only
modestly—and all of the increase has come from costly, problematic, unconventional sources. The
world's ten largest publicly traded oil companies have collectively seen their production decline by
true for the smaller companies that specialize in producing tight oil. The peak oil critics did not
foresee this industry transformation at all, but anyone who read “The End of Cheap Oil” carefully
in 1998, or
The Party's Over
in 2003, should have done so.
So much for
Chapter 3
. The following chapter discusses non-petroleum sources of energy, high-
lighting their various drawbacks and strengths. The section on natural gas requires substantial re-
vision in light of the recent boom in US shale gas production (which I examine in my latest topic,
Snake Oil
:
How Fracking's False Promise of Plenty Imperils Our Future
); otherwise, aside from
the need for a general updating, there's little cause here for author embarrassment ten years on.
some of the more alarmist peak oil authors who were blogging during the years 2005 to 2010
suggested (or seemed to suggest) that society would effectively collapse before decade's end,
The
Party's Over
paints a picture of developments likely to transpire over a longer period, from now
until about 2050. A decline in available, cheap oil will impact the financial economy, agriculture,
and transportation. We've already seen some problems along these lines as a result of oil prices ex-
ceeding a hundred dollars a barrel; more are on the way. There's not a lot here that needs revision
ten years after the topic's publication.
The final chapter, “Managing the Collapse,” offers suggestions for what individuals, communit-
ies, and society as a whole might do to answer the challenge of peak oil and adapt to having
less energy overall. If I were writing or rewriting this material today, I would point to recent ef-
forts to prepare for the peak such as those organized by the Transition Initiatives or by the city-
sponsored Peak Oil Task Forces of Portland, Oakland, San Francisco, and Bloomington, Indiana.
And I would cite several more recent topics that do part or all of what this chapter attempted, but
succeed more fully, elegantly, and entertainingly—such as Rob Hopkins's
Transition Handbook
and
Albert Bates's
Post-Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook
.
One possible criticism of the topic: while it briefly discusses climate change, it does so at in-
sufficient length. This issue now dominates just about all energy policy discussions and deserved a
more thorough treatment.
Altogether, nevertheless,
The Party's Over
fares pretty decently upon today's rereading—even
if I do say so myself!
Reflection: Lessons from the Peak Oil Decade
What has been achieved in ten years by efforts to warn the world about peak oil? The topic authors
and bloggers who turned the subject of oil depletion into a cottage industry inspired hundreds of
thousands—perhaps millions—of individuals worldwide to change their thinking, patterns of con-
sumption, and expectations about the future. Some who read about peak oil changed careers or
fields of study at university.
We peakists also changed the energy conversation:
peak oil
has become a recognized term and
concept. In a way, the current “Peak Oil Is Dead” campaign is a testament to our success: the pet-
roleum industry's public relations arm has been forced to expend resources putting out a fire that
