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x 10 −3
k=0.1
k=0.5
k=0.9
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
15
0.02
10
j
0.04
5
Shapley value
Fig. 2. A large player's Shapley value and uncertainty for a varying weight
m
1
m
( Δ l
ϕ l ) 2
β l =
(13)
X =1
Consider a small party. The marginal contribution of this party, when added to a
sample, is one if the weight of the sample is less than the quota ( q ) but is greater than or
equal to ( q
1). Otherwise, its marginal contribution is zero. We know that the mean
weight of the sample is kXj +(1
k ) X .Let c denote the proportion of large players
that is required for the random sample to have mean weight ( q
1) (i.e., c =( q
1
X ) / ( X ( j
1))). Also, let d denote the proportion of large players that is required for
the random sample to have mean weight q
(i.e., d =( q
X
) / ( X ( j
1))).
The marginal contribution of a small player is the area under the curve defined by the
normal distribution of Equation 10 between the limits c and d , i.e.,
d
1
(2 πν )
( x−μ ) 2
2 ν
Δ s =
e
dx
(14)
c
Therefore, for each small player, the Shapley value is:
m
1
m
Δ s
ϕ s =
(15)
X =1
and the uncertainty is:
m
1
m
( Δ s
ϕ s ) 2
β s =
(16)
X =1
Theorem 1. The time complexity of the above randomised method for determining the
Shapley value is polynomial in the number of players. The inaccuracy of this method
decreases with X and increases with .
Proof. The time required to compute the marginal contribution of a player to a coalition
of size i (for 1
m ) is independent of the number of players (see Equations 11 and
14). A player can join the coalition as the i th member (for 1
i
m ). The marginal
contribution of a player is determined for each of these m possible cases. Therefore,
the time taken to compute the Shapley value is O ( m ) .
i
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