Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
8.4.4 Draw Low-Carbon Roadmap and Set Priorities
for Different Stages
Taking a low-carbon development path requires clear long-term goals to identify
future priorities and objectives, which focus on three stages specifically:
Short term (2011-2020). During this stage, China's industrialization and urbani-
zation will further develop and resident's consumption patterns will be transformed.
This stage is mainly characterized by rapid growth in total energy demand, while
unit GDP energy consumption will continue to decline, and renewable energy will
develop quickly but on a small scale. Targets for this stage: steadily push forward
urbanization and maintain a reasonable population size; optimize the economic
structure and mainly focus on industrial restructuring; create a new industrialization
road while maintaining steady growth in the output of energy intensive products;
promote the construction of energy-efficient production systems; build an energy-
efficient traffic service system and strengthen energy efficiency in the building
sector; optimize the structure of the energy supply and focus research on the
preliminary development of renewable energy, primary energy and efficient
utilization of clean coal.
Medium term (2020-2035). During this phase, China will enter the late stage of
industrialization, which will have the following features: Urbanization will reach a
steady state, and there will a significant increase in the comprehensive national
strength as population growth peaks. There will be an overall slowdown in energy
demand, a diversified energy mix will take shape, and the coal-based energy
structure will shift drastically. Ideally, China's demand for fossil fuels will reach
its peak by the end of this phase. If CCS technology is adopted in large-scale
commercial use, economic growth can be achieved with the decoupling of carbon
emissions. Objectives for this phase are: First, fundamentally change the economic
mode and industrial structure. Second, strive to make the tertiary industry a bigger
proportion than the secondary industry. Raise the share of high processing and high-
tech industries. Third, build a nationwide energy-efficient transportation network
by 2030. Fourth, recognize energy-saving ideas and patterns by society. Fifth,
initially form an energy reserve system to ensure energy security. Six, basically
complete energy market reform and greatly enhance the role of the market in
resource allocation.
Long term (2036-2050). At this stage, the service industry will become the
leading force of economic development, increasing capacity for sustainable devel-
opment. Substitution effects of nuclear energy and renewable energy to traditional
fossil energy will be more prominent; increasing popularity of CCS technology in
power generation and energy intensive industries. Ideally, the large-scale applica-
tion of CCS technology will reduce total carbon dioxide emissions to the current
level by the mid-twenty-first century. To achieve the desired development
prospects, we need to build a low-carbon energy supply in which coal-fired plants
account for less than 30 % of energy production, and renewable energy is the
